Russia has advanced very little on the United Nations (UN) Human Development Index (HDI) in the last 15 years. The index, which measures the conditions likely to enlarge personal choice — health, education, and real income per capita, ranks every UN member’s progress and dovetails with other non-UN indices on social progress, happiness, and democracy.
And its findings lay bare how the war in Ukraine is hurting Russia’s people and many others around the world. Putin’s Russia placed 64 in the world in the HDI’s 2025 report, having slipped 12 places since 2015 and erasing gains made in the previous years. Belarus, junior partner in the Kremlin’s aggression, ranked 65 — down 10 since 2015.
Ukraine, the victim of the Kremlin’s imperialism, fell to 87 in 2025 — down 10 places since 2015, a year after it was battered by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its assault on the east of the country. That’s less of a surprise given it has suffered attacks, leaving more than $1 trillion in damage and lost at least 5.7 million citizens forced to flee abroad.
But in the Social Progress Index (SPI), which includes a wider range of variables, including environmental standards, sexual rights, sex equality, and press freedom, Ukraine outranked both Russia and Belarus in spite of the war. Ukraine was ranked 63 for 2025, compared to Russia at 77 and Belarus at 66.
China, a supplier of moral support and dual-use technology to Putin, placed 78 on the Human Development Index (HDI) for 2025 and 71 on the SPI.
Beijing has advanced 30 places on the HDI since 2011, in common with other Asian polities, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, and Vietnam, which have also risen dramatically in recent years.
The HDI and SPI rankings for most countries in Europe and North America for 2025 were not yet seriously affected by the Russia-Ukraine war, despite it being three years since Moscow’s full-scale invasion.
Most NATO members have pledged to raise defense spending from circa 2% of GDP to 5% by 2035, but in 2025, only the USA and six front-line states spent more than 3% on defense: Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Norway, and Denmark.
The war and defense outlays certainly reduced spending on health, education, and productive employment in Russia and Ukraine, but the effect on others’ rankings is harder to assess due to the range of forces shaping the HDI and SPI.
Three of the biggest European defense spenders — Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia — slipped four or five places on the HDI between 2015 and 2025, but the very biggest spender, Poland, declined by just one place. Two defense laggards — Hungary and Slovakia — moved down by one and six places, respectively.
The US, which tied with New Zealand at 17th place on the HDI this year and ranked only 31st on the SPI, has a $1 trillion defense budget planned for 2026, nearly double the total for all other NATO members.
And actual US defense spending will likely far exceed the trillion-dollar mark due to outlays for intelligence collection, outer space, nuclear weapons research, veterans’ administration, and interest on previous war debts.
But while the magnitude of these outlays can be expected to constrict investment in human development, it is profoundly myopic to save on security in an increasingly dangerous world.
Walter Clemens is Associate, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University, and Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science, Boston University. He wrote Blood Debts: What Putin and Xi Owe Their Victims (Washington, DC: Westphalia Press, 2023).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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