One characteristic of dictators and despots is that they speak for as long as they like. It’s a defining feature that brevity is discarded while verbosity prospers. Putin offered a good example when he used an address at the Valdai Forum on October 1 to ramble on for 3 hours and 20 minutes. There then followed a moderated discussion on stage.
For those seeking a clue about the Kremlin’s future direction of Kremlin, there were some hints. The bad news is that these were mostly extremely bleak.
Five key points of his strategy can be gleaned from his lengthy remarks:
1. Offense is defense
Putin’s central strategy and his ultimate goal is to reframe every instance of Russian aggression as a defensive necessity. He claims that Russia is merely responding to Western attacks or provocations.
This narrative is the foundation of his entire policy:
Putin justifies the war of aggression against Ukraine as a defense against the aggressive West. It is fair to summarize his statements as showing that he is preparing the population for a protracted confrontation while portraying every escalation — past and future — as a “response” and never as a Russian initiative.
In doing so, he creates an ideological framework that obscures his geopolitical goals and provides them with moral justification.
2. Not a European Russia, but a Russian Europe
Putin seeks a European security order in which Russia holds a veto over all decisions regarding European security.
He describes the West as illegitimate and rule-breaking. Behind this rhetoric lie strategic goals:
- To weaken NATO, particularly its eastern flank;
- to politically divide and economically destabilize the EU;
- to bring Central and Eastern Europe back into Russia’s sphere of influence; and
- to establish Russia as the dominant power in Europe.
Putin’s call for “less Western dominance” is not a plea for a fair balance. It is an attempt to establish a new Russian dominance after Moscow lost its hegemony following 1991.
3. Ukraine Is Russia
Putin’s goals in Ukraine are very far-reaching. Behind the demand for “neutrality” lies a three-pronged strategy: no NATO, no EU, and no Western orientation.
He demands permanent territorial control over large parts of Ukraine, including areas not yet conquered. Putin wants complete political control over a Ukraine that cannot use its sovereign interests but instead prioritizes Russian interests in every decision.
His statement that Ukraine “cannot exist” and is “controlled from the outside” is a classic rhetorical device designed to delegitimize Ukraine. This is intended to lay the groundwork for lasting Russian influence.
4. Aiding Self-Deterrence (All for Kaliningrad)
Putin is attempting to portray Russia’s willingness to escalate — even to the use of nuclear weapons — as a regrettable but necessary defense. In doing so, he is pursuing a military-strategic objective. Putin knows that a NATO defense of the Baltic states against a Russian attack would necessarily require the neutralization of air defenses, missile sites, and military infrastructure in the Kaliningrad exclave.
A NATO defense of the Baltic states and the Baltic Sea region would have to hit it, and hard.
That is why Putin is attempting, through rhetoric, to:
- Reinterpret the logic of NATO’s defense as “aggression;
- weaken Europe’s political willingness to defend its northeastern flank;
- portray the defense of the Baltic states as “escalation”; and
- raise the threshold for Western countermeasures against Russian aggression in the Baltic states and the Baltic Sea region.
His threats and his vague brandishing of nuclear weapons are intended to deter NATO from consistently implementing its own defense strategy, as key NATO member states succumb to self-deterrence.
5. The Economy as a Weapon
Putin presents the Russian economy as “stable” and “resilient.” It is clear that, for Putin, economic policy is not a means of improving the quality of life for the Russian people, but rather a geopolitical tool.
He does not speak of the human casualties, social costs, or economic damage caused by his war. Impoverishment, the demographic crisis, and the exodus of skilled workers do not feature in his discourse.
For Putin, the Russian economy is a means of exerting pressure on Europe, a resource for war, and a tool for maintaining his regime.
He speaks of the economy as a source of power for the Russian state, not as the basis of livelihood for the Russian people.
In a nutshell: Putin wants Russia to dominate a European order in which Ukraine is permanently subjugated and in which Moscow makes much of Eastern, Central and Western Europe a sphere of influence. In this sense, his words suggest a crystallization of his extensive ambitions for continental dominance.
Nico Lange is a Senior Fellow at CEPA. He is also the founder and director of IRIS – Institute for Risk-Analysis and International Security. Lange teaches at the Chair of Military History at the University of Potsdam and at the Hertie School of Governance. He served as Chief of Staff at the German Ministry of Defense from 2019-2022.
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