The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) summit in Vilnius in April will bring together 13 European Union (EU) states located between the Adriatic, Baltic, and Black Seas, to focus on expanding regional energy, transport, and digital infrastructure, notably along the North-South axis.
Poland has been instrumental in championing and shaping the Initiative since its inception in 2015, but the installation of a new government after the 2023 elections had cast doubt over Warsaw’s continued commitment since this format has been seen as a pet project of its predecessor.
While the 3SI is primarily a presidential format, its efficacy hinges significantly on the involvement of the government administration, since it can dedicate funds to regional infrastructural projects of regional interests.
Poland’s new coalition, led by the Civic Platform party, had pledged to prioritize the Weimar Triangle of Poland, Germany, and France, and work to restore good relations with the EU. There were concerns it might dismantle the 3SI due to misconceptions linking it with anti-EU and pro-Trump sentiments.
But Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna confirmed the government’s commitment to the grouping at an event hosted by the Lithuanian Embassy in Warsaw on February 27. He said the new administration wants to make 3SI a priority for the Polish EU presidency in 2025, bolster its visibility, and position it as a tool to advance regional interests.
The grouping is seen as important though its progress to date is modest. The US made a $1bn grant to 3SI countries in 2020, and senior US and EU officials have attended its summits. But the total financial sum needed to bring infrastructure up to the standard of the Western European EU states is enormous — it was estimated at $1.2 trillion in 2020. While progress is being made, there’s a long way to go.
Szejna also underlined the importance of 3SI cooperation for Ukraine and said his government sees the 3SI and Weimar Triangle as complementary.
Continued support for the Initiative is also expected from Poland’s partners, regional allies, and the US. It is also in Warsaw’s strategic interest as it can enhance its influence within the European Union and the Weimar Triangle by representing the interests of a broader regional coalition.
At the same time, engaging directly with the key EU stakeholders within the Weimar format will reinforce Poland’s leadership role in the Three Seas grouping.
Anchoring the 3SI within EU frameworks could facilitate lobbying for additional investment funds and policies favorable to the region. Consultations on a regional level would also help strengthen the bargaining position of the Three Seas region when dealing with France and Germany, the EU’s traditional power axis.
The regional approach would also be more effective for providing support to Ukraine. Kyiv has been a participating partner of the Initiative since 2022, but this cooperation must become more tangible.
Including Ukraine in regional infrastructure projects would not only benefit the embattled country but could also unlock additional funding for the whole Three Seas region.
The region should also share its collective experience of EU accession to help Ukraine through the process as efficiently as possible. Having recent and relevant experience would not only make 3SI members ideal advisors but also encourage them to safeguard the region’s interests in any EU reforms that could be tied to future enlargement.
Commitment to the Three Seas initiative could also be beneficial if as reported Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski becomes a contender for the proposed role of EU Defense Commissioner. Securing such a position without regional backing might be difficult, given his history of strained relations in the region.
The new government in Warsaw has a compelling incentive to continue its commitment to 3SI, given the format’s considerable potential and significant advantages for Poland. However, a mere continuation would not be sufficient — the Initiative needs to develop a better profile inside and outside the EU and start delivering tangible outcomes.
The new government can bolster the Initiative’s standing in the EU by leveraging its positive rapport with Brussels. And through a pragmatic rather than ideological approach, it can strengthen the Initiative’s economic and business dimensions.
Such a shift would not only align with the original objectives of the grouping but also resonate with regional partners, who increasingly prioritize tangible economic benefits and sustainable development.
Julita Wilczek is a researcher at the Institute of New Europe in Warsaw. She specializes in the Three Seas region, especially regional economic and infrastructural cooperation like the Three Seas Initiative and the Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund. She has previously worked for the Sobieski Institute, the Ministry of Economic Development, and the Polish Development Bank.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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