Battle lines are drawn. A year ago, US Vice President JD Vance came to Munich and delivered an unvarnished “America First” message. Since then, the allies have fought over everything from tariffs to territory, with tech policy thrown in for good measure.
European leaders started with accommodation. They struck a trade deal, accepting stiff American duties. But as Washington continued to demand more concessions, European attitudes are hardening. A strong “Europe First” flavor wafts over Munich.
The conference agenda is packed with events focused on technology and technology policy. Sovereignty and resilience pop up in panel titles. Speakers will address how Europe can manage on its own. European leaders are meeting this week in a Belgian castle to discuss a “Buy European” plan. They are signing trade deals with mid-sized powers. And they are determined to resist US pressure to dilute their strong tech regulations.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead the US delegation to Munich. Vice Presidents are the traditional choice. Rubio arrives as European views of the US are hardening. The number of British people who view the US unfavorably has doubled in the past two years to 64%. In Germany, 71% now view the US as an “adversary,” and across Europe, just 16% view the US as an ally.
The tensions have spilled over into disputes over tech policy. European regulations remain toxic in Washington and in Silicon Valley, where they are perceived as punitive for American companies, too lax on China, and — in some quarters — a challenge to free speech. Washington attacks Europe’s Digital Services Act as “censorship” and the Digital Markets Act as targeting US tech platforms.
Europeans disagree and look unlikely to dilute their regulations to please Americans. European Commissioner Henna Virkkunen says the EU laws are democratically decided and aimed at protecting citizens from online risks such as terrorist content and child sexual abuse. She vows to continue issuing fines and warnings against US tech firms.
Europe is also moving fast to diversify trade — including with China. In recent weeks, the leaders of Britain, Ireland, and Finland have travelled to Beijing, with Germany’s chancellor expected to follow next month. The European Commission approved the largest-ever trade agreement with Mercosur and just penned another massive deal with India. The relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU has thawed from frosty to lukewarm. “Middle powers” are attempting to work together to form an alternative pillar in world affairs, as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suggested in Davos.
Practical limitations exist to such a strategy. Attempts to replace American, non-European tech, software, hardware, and services could cost between €3 and €5 trillion, without any guarantee of success. Europe cannot afford such a bill.
Another debate centers on whether to back a “Buy European” strategy designed to reduce dependency on US tech. French President Emmanuel Macron has been vocal in recent days about Europe’s need to stand up for itself and apply European preferences to certain strategic sectors. It’s a call for a return to France’s industrial policy roots, arguing that if the US can be transactional, well, so too can Europe.
“We must protect our industry,” Macron said. “The Chinese do it, and so do the Americans. Europe is currently the most open market in the world.”
But other European leaders disagree. The Netherlands, the Nordics, and the Baltics argue that the European preference would increase regulatory burdens and scare investors away. “The basic idea of trying to protect European business, if that is the purpose of Buy European, to try to avoid trading with or partnering with other countries, then I’m very skeptical,” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said before this week’s European leaders’ summit.
Support for transatlantic decoupling diminishes the further one travels east. Countries closest to Russia and to the ongoing war in Ukraine are focused on keeping the US in the “security” tent for as long as possible. Everyone acknowledges the need for a more resilient Europe, but the route has not been signed off on.
Europe acknowledges it has a competitiveness problem. It has drawn up plans to simplify rules and ramp up the internal market. These changes cannot happen soon enough. For all the conflict, the EU and the US are natural partners on tech, and both sides should continue to seek opportunities for cooperation to maintain independence from China.
US tech leadership would be bolstered by working with its European allies. There is no prospect of a ceremonial handshake resetting transatlantic relations on tech or anything else. If the planned conversations in Munich are a guide, Europe is preparing to eke out its future, not by cutting all ties across the Atlantic Ocean, but by reducing the risk of overreliance on them.
Ronan Murphy is Director of the Tech Policy Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Bandwidth is CEPA’s online journal dedicated to advancing transatlantic cooperation on tech policy. All opinions expressed on Bandwidth are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
2025 CEPA Forum Tech & Security Conference
Explore the latest from the conference.
