The Houthis’ anti-shipping activities in Yemen, including the use of mines, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned surface vessels (USVs), and missile strikes, have significant implications for NATO countries.
The attacks not only threaten the security of maritime routes but also play a crucial role in the broader context of irregular warfare and strategic competition involving China, Russia, and Iran. Whereas NATO is a purely defensive alliance committed to the security and interests of its member states, these authoritarian states leverage the Houthis in Yemen to indirectly undermine the economic prosperity, freedom of navigation, and overarching security interests of the transatlantic alliance.
The alliance must therefore understand the threat posed by these Western-hostile proxies if they are to counter this concerning development.
The Houthis’ control of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline positions them to disrupt one of the world’s most vital maritime chokepoints: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This narrow passage connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. While it lies south of the Tropic of Cancer, and therefore outside NATO’s geographical limit, the alliance’s interest is unquestionable.
The strait allows the transit of oil, natural gas, and commercial goods between Europe, Asia, and the Americas. The Houthi targeting of shipping — they have attacked more than 50 vessels — therefore poses a significant threat to global trade. NATO countries, heavily reliant on these routes for energy and commerce, face increased shipping costs due to heightened security measures and sometimes longer-distance rerouting. The attacks also raise insurance premiums for vessels operating in the region, indirectly affecting the cost of goods.
Moreover, NATO countries depend on the uninterrupted flow of oil and gas through the Bab el-Mandeb. Any significant disruption could lead to energy shortages and price spikes, affecting economies already grappling with global energy market volatility. The effects are clear — trade through the Suez Canal is down by two-thirds.
This vulnerability underscores the strategic importance of the region for NATO's energy security. Consequently, NATO navies, particularly those of the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, are increasingly engaged in the region to ensure the security of shipping lanes. This diverts resources from other strategic priorities and has led to direct confrontations with Houthi forces, which are undeniably supported by Iran.
Their targeting discrimination reveals the Houthis’ aims. They notably refrain from attacking Iranian, Russian, and Chinese military or commercial vessels — underscoring their strategic alignment with these nations. And while they claim the attacks support Palestinians in Gaza, just about every other vessel seems to be fair game.
Iran, a key supporter of the Houthis, provides advanced weaponry and training, underlining their mutual interests. Iranian intelligence vessels providing targeting information to the Houthis have traveled freely in areas where the Houthis indiscriminately attack other vessels, making little attempt to hide their cooperation. Houthi anti-shipping activities in the Red Sea, enabled by Iran, undoubtedly undermine NATO security and pose a direct threat to the interests of the alliance.
Additionally, Russia and China have offered various forms of international support to the Houthis, driven by their alignment of interests against NATO and Western influence. This selective targeting demonstrates an indirect threat to NATO, as it highlights the Houthis' role in a broader coalition of state and non-state actors challenging Western interests.
The Houthis' activities are not an isolated phenomenon but are part of a broader pattern of irregular warfare influenced by major powers, particularly Iran, China, and Russia. These nations use asymmetric tactics to challenge alliance strategic interests globally.
Recent US intelligence reporting reveals that, at Iran’s direction, the Houthis may soon provide weapons to the anti-Western al-Shabaab terrorist group in Somalia. This form of irregular warfare complicates the Western strategic calculus, as direct confrontation with Iran is politically and militarily complex regardless of its growing justification.
There are clear benefits for China. It has a growing involvement in the region, a critical point for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and has expanded its military and commercial bases in the Red Sea port of Djibouti, while also increasing its anti-piracy patrols off the Horn of Africa. Houthi activities disrupting Western-aligned maritime routes thereby benefit China by hindering its strategic competitors.
Russia also sees opportunities in the instability caused. By aligning with Iran and, to a lesser extent, the Houthis, Russia aims to weaken NATO cohesion and distract the alliance from its core focus on European security. This comes while Moscow has sought the favor of Sudan’s warring factions by alternately providing weapons and private military company trainers to each side, with an eye toward eventually establishing an overseas naval base on the Red Sea at the Port of Sudan. Public support for the Houthis can be seen as part of its broader strategy to create multiple fronts of tension for NATO, stretching its resources and strategic focus amid Russia’s own ruinous war against Ukraine.
The continuation and escalation of Houthi anti-shipping activities could have several long-term implications for the West. To counter these threats, NATO and democratic allies in Asia, Australasia, and elsewhere may need to increase their naval presence and capabilities in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, along with Middle Eastern allies like Saudi Arabia that have so far held back.
The Houthi campaign does have a secondary benefit. Countering threats such as UAVs, USVs, and missiles, will push NATO innovation in countermeasures. This includes developing advanced electronic warfare capabilities, improved missile defense systems, and better mine detection and removal technologies.
But even this comes at a cost. The Iranians, Russians, and Chinese are all studying the Houthis closely — and, we must assume, receiving intelligence directly from them — which directly contributes to increased capability and lethality for future weapon systems.
The Houthis’ ongoing anti-shipping activities present a significant challenge. We ignore the actions of the developing anti-Western axis at our peril. These malign states derive significant benefits from continued Houthi activities, all at the same time undermining Western strategic and economic interests.
NATO members have little choice but to enhance their maritime security measures, innovate technologically, and adopt comprehensive diplomatic and economic strategies. The alliance's success will be crucial in maintaining global security and stability.
Doug Livermore is the vice president of operations at The Hoplite Group, a global threat analysis company providing bespoke support to government and commercial clients. Doug also continues his military service as the Deputy Commander for Special Operations Detachment – Joint Special Operations Command in the North Carolina Army National Guard. In addition to his role as the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative, he is the National Director of External Communications for the Special Forces Association, National Vice President for the Special Operations Association of America, Director of Development of the Corioli Institute, and serves as the Chair of the Advisory Committee for No One Left Behind.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author’s and do not represent official US Government, Department of Defense, or Department of the Army positions.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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