NATO officially launched the long-awaited Arctic Sentry operation in February to significantly strengthen its presence in a changing High North. The enhanced activity follows a new trend in NATO’s regional response, building on the recent activation of Eastern Sentry and Baltic Sentry to strengthen naval and aerial patrols.
Arctic Sentry’s activation takes place against the backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine, which cemented the logic of the NATO Arctic Seven (namely, the seven alliance countries north of the Arctic Circle) against an increasingly aggressive Kremlin. Russian authorities feel vindicated by NATO’s perceived “expansion”, even as they simultaneously become more vulnerable in a region where Moscow once held strategic dominance.
The initiative enables NATO members and military planners to coordinate and synchronize Arctic-related endeavors under a single umbrella. In other words, it streamlines existing multinational circumpolar efforts among NATO member states.
The activity also clarifies the Northern dimension of the alliance following Finland’s and Sweden’s entry. Joint Force Command Norfolk, which is soon to be led by a British admiral for the first time, will assume leadership as part of a new, expanded area of responsibility that now includes all the Nordic states.
However, much remains to be done to bring the alliance toward Arctic coherence. Arctic Sentry might be the opportunity for NATO to create an operational roadmap for the region.
Power in the Arctic depends on access and presence, and NATO can only be as strong as its ability to deploy and sustain a military force there.
Arctic Sentry embodies the logic of deterrence through presence. This entails a tailored approach to deploying troops and hardware, training and drills, and logistics and operational support.
The activity streamlines patrols and overall regional awareness. This includes NATO’s expanded maritime patrols in the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea, strengthened air policing missions in Iceland, and Danish and Swedish aerial patrols over Greenland. Another pledge is the UK’s announcement that it will double the number of specialist Royal Marines deployed in Norway to 2,000 over the next three years. Nordic nations have also been organizing, for instance, by creating a Combined Air Operations Centre in Norway and Forward Land Forces in Finland in 2025.
Regarding training, the initiative will play a major role in multi-domain cold-weather exercises. It incorporates flagship NATO drills such as Arctic Endurance and Cold Response. From 9-19 March, 14 NATO nations participated in Cold Response 2026 across Norway and Finland, where some 25,000 soldiers were deployed. Despite transatlantic tension over Greenland, 3,000 US Marines and US Airmen took part in the drills.
But Arctic Sentry is just the start: NATO must now go further to ensure it remains safe and secure in a changing Arctic. A key requirement is domain awareness technology.
The Arctic presents a unique and complex operational environment. The Atlantic alliance must place autonomous and uncrewed intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities at the heart of its regional operations.
This includes AI-enabled data fusion and intelligence gathering; space-based capabilities for communication, positioning, and navigation; aerial and maritime uncrewed systems; and remote sensing and autonomous technologies. The procurement of such capabilities will also benefit civilian-led activities such as search-and-rescue operations, environmental protection, and climate change mitigation.
Overall, remote access is key to addressing gaps in conventional Arctic surveillance, anticipating current threats, and predicting future challenges in a region characterized by vast distances and a harsh climate. For instance, the recent launch of Task Force X in the Baltic Sea, an experiment in drones, data fusion, and AI-enabled systems integration, could easily be expanded and replicated in an Arctic setting.
In this effort, NATO must particularly emphasize countering seabed warfare activities by both Russia and China, as well as develop modern anti-submarine warfare capabilities and advanced maritime patrol aviation.
Finally, as climate change creates new challenges, NATO will need to balance its human presence with remote access, a balance that will inform future procurement choices and capability requirements for Arctic operations. While deterrence requires a constant human presence and its demonstration, some operations will likely be left entirely to modern technology in the not-so-distant future.
Mathieu Boulègue is a Senior Fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). He is a freelance researcher and consultant in international conflict and security affairs, with a focus on the Former Soviet Union. In his research, he focuses on Russian foreign policy and military affairs, Ukraine, Russia-NATO relations and Transatlantic security, and Russia-China defense and security relations, as well as military-security issues in the Arctic. He is a Consulting Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House – The Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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