When Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia joined NATO in 2004, the protection of the Baltic states’ airspace became one of the alliance’s most pressing issues.
Situated between mainland Russia, the Kaliningrad enclave, and Belarus, the three nations were exposed to provocative actions by Moscow as they lacked combat aircraft and air defense systems. Russian Air Force jets flew near their airspace — and thus NATO’s — on an almost daily basis without using transponders, communicating with air traffic control, or filing flight plans.
In response, and aiming to fill gaps in the national capabilities of the new member states, NATO expanded its peacetime air policing mission to the region. Now the alliance has agreed to extend the principle to ground-based air defense systems — the first Dutch Patriot unit will arrive for exercises this summer.
The core principle of the air policing plan was to ensure a single NATO standard of security across Baltic airspace by rotating allied air force detachments through the region. To date 17 NATO allies have engaged in securing the airspace of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia by deploying their combat aircraft and other capabilities to the region.
Having started as a temporary measure in 2004, the Baltic Air Policing Mission became permanent in 2012 and the number of air bases used by allied contingents has increased from one, at Šiauliai, Lithuania, to three, with one in each of the states.
Since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, allied fighter detachments have also been deployed to Ämari, Estonia, and since March 2024 to the Latvian military base at Lielvārde. The allied rotation is currently being provided by Spain and Portugal, operating from Šiauliai, with Germany reinforcing the mission from Lielvārde.
Now, 20 years after the launch of the Baltic Air Policing Mission, NATO is about to significantly upgrade its commitment to Baltic airspace protection through the Rotational Air Defense Model, which will add ground-based long-range air defenses to the patrols of the skies.
Given the deteriorating security situation in Europe caused by Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, it represents a crucial step toward the implementation of the alliance’s commitment to strengthen its deterrence and defense measures as agreed at the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid.
Last year, at the NATO Summit in Vilnius, leaders stressed the need to enhance air defense capabilities on the Eastern Flank as a priority and agreed to strengthen the alliance’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense System (IAMD) — an overarching air defense framework that includes NATO Air Policing and NATO Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD).
In line with the core principle of Baltic air policing, the air defense program will rotate allied ground-based air defense systems among the Baltic states to achieve their continuous protection from airborne threats.
It will position a system that, alongside the primary goal of repelling damage to civil and military infrastructure, will seek to minimize Russia’s anti-access/area denial (A2AD) efforts to impede NATO’s military mobility in the region.
The model is being created without much publicity, but the first deliverable is already known — the Netherlands is deploying its Patriot air defense system unit to Lithuania for exercises this summer.
This will potentially mark the first round of the new program and is expected to be succeeded by other NATO partners with Patriot or other comparable air defense systems. As with air policing, the three states will provide host nation support for the air defense contingents deployed at Šiauliai, Ämari, and Lielvārde.
The three Baltic states are also acting to stiffen their defenses. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are part of the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), which aims to close gaps and build additional capabilities in European air defense.
As part of this, the Baltic states are developing their own national medium-range air defense capabilities. Latvia and Estonia have jointly purchased the German IRIS-T system and Lithuania is investing in an additional NASAMS unit.
With these measures, a significant and long-overdue security gap in the Baltic states’ medium and long-range air defense will be closed. While the process has taken a considerable time to organize (much like allied commitments to raise troop strength in the Baltics), it should significantly improve alliance defenses and thus the costs of any Russian attack. Initiatives like the Baltic defense line will do likewise.
The expectation is that, after entering the operational phase in the Baltics, the Rotational Air Defense Model will be expanded to other NATO countries and regions and serve as an example for the rest of the alliance to follow.
Dr. Justina Budginaite-Froehly is a researcher focusing on strategic security issues and geopolitics in the Baltic Sea region.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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