The start of what Denmark’s prime minister has termed a Kremlin hybrid war, began on September 9 with an attack by more than 20 Russian military drones on Poland.
CEPA research shows that since then, northern European NATO member states have registered at least another 38 incidents from Norway to Denmark, and Belgium to the Baltic states. Not all these incidents can be traced back to Russia (and some initially appear innocuous), but many appear considered and malign. The incursions are now occurring almost daily and include swarms of drones flying in formation.
The most concentrated elements of the campaign are aimed at those countries foremost in supporting Ukraine, sharply increasing defense spending, and demanding robust NATO action against the Kremlin — Poland, Germany, Denmark, and Norway.
This list also covers incidents in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Iceland, and Sweden.
The list is based on publicly available information and is not exhaustive. Reports of drone sightings are not in themselves evidence of hostile activity, and police in several countries note that such observations are often unrelated to security concerns.
However, recent observations have drawn increased attention from NATO countries, as they appear to follow a pattern of disrupting airports, approaching military facilities, and critical infrastructure.
As Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on September 29: “Let me put it in a sentence that may be a little shocking at first glance… we are not at war, but we are no longer at peace [with Russia] either.”
Heine Sandvik Brekke is an Editorial Intern at CEPA. He is currently studying at the American University in Washington, DC. Heine is pursuing a degree in journalism and has worked in a variety of editorial roles, including at the daily newspaper Aftenposten. He also served in the Norwegian Army as a conscript in Northern Norway.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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