Photo: Rescuers of the State Emergency Service remove the rubble at the maternity ward of the Vilniansk. Credit: Ukrinform via Alamy.

Making Ukraine Ready for Renewal

As Ukrainians suffer their toughest winter since the full-scale invasion, it’s hope for the future that keeps them going. And they need to make detailed plans for it.

By Kseniya Sotnikova

February 20, 2026

In our freezing apartments, we know we are weeks away from spring. It’s a season that symbolizes hope and renewal, as well as the promise of warmer weather and solar power to support our beleaguered energy infrastructure.

We are driven by the dream of winning the war, and must make plans now for the time when the fighting is over.

What will Ukraine look like in 10 years’ time? The question is examined in depth in a new CEPA report, Ukraine 2036, where the outlines are made clear. The country faces a stark choice between its emergence as an important contributor to regional and transatlantic security or as a source of prolonged instability. The answer will be shaped by policies designed and implemented in the next two years.

Decisions made now will set the trajectory for the next decade, establishing patterns in institution building, demographics, economic structures, and international partnerships.

Most importantly, the framework for postwar elections will determine democratic legitimacy for the years ahead, and a proper legal and administrative structure will need to be established before the fighting ends. It must provide an environment for competitive campaigning as well as equal opportunities for all citizens to vote and run for office.

It will need to ensure votes for military personnel and Ukraine’s 4.5 million internally displaced people. There must also be access to polling stations for the almost 6 million Ukrainians who have sought refuge abroad (along with another 1 million-plus in Russia), and security risks on voting day(s) minimized.

This will require systemic work that cannot be delayed until after the guns fall silent, just as the future of Ukrainians outside Ukraine must be planned for immediately.

Of those living abroad, less than half (43%) said they intended to return home, compared to 74% in November 2022. The longer the war continues, the more Ukrainians will adapt to living outside the country and shift from temporary displacement to long-term settlement. And the outflow continues; in 2025, another 290,000 left the country and did not return.

Without coherent policies to engage with them and create incentives for return, especially for young people, the country’s demographic prospects look grim — government estimates suggest there may only be 25 million Ukrainians by 2051, compared to 42 million at the full-scale war’s outset.

At the same time, Ukraine faces a growing shortage of skilled workers as mobilization removes critical staff from the economy.

For instance, while estimates suggest the construction industry might provide up to 10% of Ukrainian GDP after the war, it will depend on having an available workforce and proper regulatory mechanisms for attracting foreign workers. There will need to be programs to encourage and facilitate employment for Ukrainians, especially veterans and internally displaced people.

Investment will also require the establishment of clear legal frameworks before the war ends. Foreign investors already name security, corruption, political uncertainty, and issues with the rule of law as the biggest barriers to doing business in Ukraine.

Investment is desperately needed. Given the amount of destruction from Russian attacks in 2025 and early 2026, reconstruction costs will far exceed the February 2025 estimate of $524bn.

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The extensive damage to Ukraine’s energy grid will provide a window of opportunity to replace the Soviet-era, highly centralized system with one based on best international practice and new technologies, but it will need a massive injection of cash.

Clear legal frameworks, streamlined permit procedures, anti-corruption measures, and transparent mechanisms for cooperation between foreign businesses and local partners should be established in advance of any peace agreement so Ukraine can fully benefit from momentum at the end of the war.

With an estimated 1.5 million veterans and the number growing, rehabilitation, reintegration, and retraining are pressing issues. Businesses are already being encouraged to hire veterans, but there is a lot more work to do, from addressing physical and psychological trauma to incorporating inclusivity requirements during reconstruction of destroyed cities.

Ukraine has demonstrated a remarkable resilience and capacity for innovation, from groundbreaking solutions in the defense sector to cutting-edge expertise in prosthetics. With an ambition to join the European Union, Kyiv has also been working to meet EU requirements while fighting the war.

Ukraine’s budget for 2026 has 27.2% of GDP allocated for security and defense and it is international support that allows it to cover social and humanitarian expenditure. It is important for its partners to proceed with the implementation of decisions aimed at further support.

They must ratify the establishment of an International Commission to consider compensation claims for damage caused by Russia’s aggression, and establish a reparations mechanism with the focus on using frozen Russian assets.

Without robust international support in reconstruction, development, and institutional capacity-building, even the best-designed policies will struggle to deliver results.

Given all these challenges, the logic is clear: if Kyiv postpones critical policy decisions until after the war ends, it would mean missing the opportunity to lay the groundwork for recovery.

Coordinated action is needed now across the Ukrainian government, civil society, local authorities, and international partners on reconstruction priorities, engaging Ukrainians abroad, investing in human capital, and balancing security and economic development.

With robust international support, Ukraine can implement coherent cross-sectoral policies. And for the US and EU, this should be considered an opportunity. Ukraine already offers valuable cooperation in the defense sector, notably through battlefield-tested arms exports, and has tremendous potential for reconstruction and recovery projects that could benefit all partners involved.

What Ukraine will look like in 2036 is being shaped by decisions made today. The choice is what seeds to plant now to make Ukraine bloom when our long-awaited springtime finally arrives.

Dr Kseniya Sotnikova is an Ax:son Johnson Fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). She worked at the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, dealing with UA-EU UA-NATO political and security cooperation, and with the EU Advisory Mission (EUAM Ukraine), focusing on civilian security sector reform. She was Senior Political Analyst at the NATO Representation to Ukraine and holds a Ph.D. in Political Science (security studies), an MA in Philosophy and an MA in International Economics.

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.