The European Union (EU) got an alarming reminder about its fragile standing in great power competition when, in a recent speech, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi reiterated a hard truth: dependence on strategic resources is incompatible with European sovereignty.
As the European Commission has noted, China supplies 100% of Europe’s Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE) and 81% of Light Rare Earth Elements (LREE). This arrangement is not in the best interests of any EU member country.
Being dependent on a stronger power with hostile intent is a major strategic folly. From the ethnic cleansing and subjugation of the Uyghur people to unending democratic crackdowns in Hong Kong, to name just two examples, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) makes clear its deep antagonism to European values.
The EU’s dependence on Chinese rare earths is a clear and urgent security risk. In times of war, or for political leverage, the CCP can again halt exports, as it did in April. The decision was aimed at the US as part of the tariff war, but Europe’s inclusion in China’s response indicated its understanding of the continent’s vulnerability and a willingness to exploit it.
EU supply chains would be crippled. From electric vehicles to defense, Europe is reliant on China. For a stronger and independent EU, member countries must look for alternatives, from within and outside the EU. Last year, the bloc’s Critical Raw Materials Act took effect to encourage deals with new suppliers and with mining in its own continent.
Italy is taking an active role by looking within its borders to reduce dependence. In late June, Rome announced its National General Mineral Exploration Program (Programma nazionale di esplorazione mineraria generale) — to revive the Italian mining industry. Through subsoil exploration, the government hopes to identify key locations for opening profitable mines throughout the regions.
The project is not without challenges. Italian law and bureaucracy create long delays. Between permits, mining concessions, and getting mining facilities into production, 15 years can pass. But Italy can do more — given that the National General Mineral Exploration Program will not cover all of Italy’s and the EU’s needs, Italy can embed rare earth element projects in its Africa-focused Mattei Plan.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced the Mattei Plan (Piano Mattei) at the Italy–Africa Summit in Rome in January 2024, introducing a €5.5bn ($6.4bn) initiative to launch nine pilot projects across Algeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Mozambique, the Republic of Congo, and Tunisia. The plan encompasses investments in education and training, agriculture, health, energy, water, and infrastructure, aiming to foster equal partnerships and curb irregular migration by addressing its root economic causes.
Expanding Meloni’s Mattei Plan to directly include rare earths mining investment could serve as a test vehicle for breaking China’s dominance as Europe’s supplier of rare earths. By investing in fledgling projects, Italy can work towards securing supply chain diversification. It could also look to other African partners, such as Namibia’s Lofdal Project. Such projects could also be fast-tracked under the Critical Raw Materials Act.
The Mattei Plan is notably different from the CCP’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI uses investments and loans to secure political leverage and influence — effectively twisting the arms of countries that accept the partnership. The Mattei Plan should aim for constructive, capacity-building agreements. Italy and the EU need to build relationships with like-minded countries. At a time when traditional allies are turning their backs on Europe, the continent must be more focused on its own key needs.
Nonetheless, the Mattei Plan has a limited capacity. Due to Italy’s crippling debt-to-GDP ratio of around 137%, Rome lacks the financial resources to be a foreign investment powerhouse, but it can help point and work with the broader EU. The Mattei Plan is already collaborating with the European Commission, using funds from the EU’s Global Gateway as partial funding. This could easily be developed further.
Meloni’s government can demonstrate the benefits of closer partnerships with African countries. Investing in mining projects will strengthen rare earth element supply chains by introducing more suppliers in the market, and prices will fall over time, benefiting a variety of European industries. Over time, this has the potential to lower China’s dominance over rare earths and its worrying political leverage.
That could turn Draghi’s warning into action — making European sovereignty more than just a phrase in a speech.
Niccolò Comini works at the American Enterprise Institute. He writes about Italian politics and foreign policy, and has been published on CEPA’s Europe’s Edge, Foreign Policy, and The National Interest.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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