Hydrocarbons and now hostages: Russia’s exports are booming. The West has failed to apply sanctions effectively to Russian oil, gas, or coal. Now it has given a boost to the Kremlin’s new industry, kidnapping. And it has expended scarce political energy on a high-profile humanitarian issue rather than the only geopolitical one that matters: Ukraine.
Those bleak conclusions cloud the joyful news that 16 people imprisoned in Russia and (in one case) Belarus have been swapped for eight Russians, ranging from an assassin to deep-cover illegals.
The freed Americans include Evan Gershkovich, who, during nearly 500 days behind bars, benefited from a tireless campaign by his family, colleagues, and employer, the Wall Street Journal (disclosure: part of the same Murdoch media empire as the London Times, where I am a columnist). Similar efforts helped Vladimir Kara-Murza, a dual Russian-British citizen with permanent American residency. His friends are delighted that he will not die in a Russian prison.
Yet the prisoner exchange, a record in its size and complexity, has two downsides. One is that it vindicates the Kremlin’s hostage-taking. The Russian adults were behind bars for a reason, including murder, in the case of the hitman Vadim Krasikov. Their counterparts were jailed on the flimsiest charges: in Kara-Murza’s case, discrediting the authorities by accusing them of political persecution. Irony’s death sentence in Russia came long ago.
The lesson to the Kremlin’s spies and hoodlums is clear. Do your worst and do not worry. If you get caught (still unlikely) you will have only a couple of years to wait before you are brought back home for a heroes’ welcome. The message to the Russian authorities is that hostage-taking attracts not opprobrium but negotiating gambits. It is already time to start the next round of arrests of foreigners and high-profile locals. They may not be needed right now, but they can be stockpiled for the next round of haggling, accompanied by the expert pulling of heartstrings in Western capitals.
Worse, the people freed in this exchange may be heroic champions, tragic victims, or anything in between: but for the time being they are irrelevant. The people who are resisting Vladimir Putin’s regime most effectively are not giving press conferences in Bonn. They are huddled in fox-holes trying to slow down the Russian advance in Donetsk. Repeat after me: for the foreseeable future, the only real “Russian opposition” is the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Ukrainians are fighting not just for their freedom but for ours; they need more help and need it quickly. The welcome arrival of a handful of F-16 warplanes should not distract us from the central fact: Western help comes always too little, too late. The dithering has cost tens of thousands of lives and allowed Russia to inflict colossal, all but irreparable, damage to Ukraine’s natural environment, infrastructure, social cohesion, and collective mental health.
Western leaders’ time and political energies are limited. The efforts spent persuading German chancellor Olaf Scholz to allow the murderer Krasikov to be traded could have otherwise been put to better use. For example: inducing Germany to send the Taurus long-range missiles that Ukraine so badly needs. Ukrainians will also need no reminding of the thousands of prisoners of war, subjected to bestial ill-treatment by their Russian captors. They have spouses, parents, siblings, and offspring yearning for their release, too. Some outside political oomph to speed up prisoner exchanges would be welcome.
For now, though, the message to all citizens of Western countries is clear. Do not go to Russia, for any reason. The price is too high. And not just for you.
Edward Lucas is a Non-resident Senior Fellow and Senior Adviser at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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