Ten days that shook the world. Not the Bolshevik revolution of 1917, but the geopolitical earthquake that began on February 28 with the embattled leader of a friendly country being browbeaten in the Oval Office and ended with the Polish foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, publicly trading barbs with his US counterpart Marco Rubio.
That spat sets the stage for the next ten weeks, and I fear for even more dramatic events. Forget the US administration’s attempts to cudgel Ukraine into submission. The real row now is with a newly assertive neo-Gaullist Europe.
Wriggling out of eight decades of American tutelage, European leaders radiate confidence. Friedrich Merz, the incoming German chancellor, says his country will spend “whatever it takes” on defense. France’s Emmanuel Macron publicly corrected Donald Trump, who claimed falsely that NATO allies would not support the US in a war. Finland’s foreign minister says that US strategy on Ukraine should be “exactly the other way round” (pressuring Moscow, not Kyiv). The former Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis speaks openly of the “Trump-Putin pact”.
Europe, broadly defined, has a bigger population than the US and a roughly similar GDP. But—as President Trump might say—the European leaders don’t have the cards. What happens if he calls their bluff? Imagine, for example, that the US president:
- Announces that the US will no longer participate at meetings of NATO’s North Atlantic Council and military committee;
- Orders home all the forces temporarily deployed in Poland and the Baltic states and all nuclear weapons based in Europe;
- Pauses all military logistical support and freezes access to its stockpiles of munitions and spare parts;
- Suspends intelligence sharing with all European allies…
- And the nuclear agreement with the UK;
- Lifts all sanctions on Russia;
- Imposes sanctions on European banks and firms it deems involved in “warmongering”;
- Adopts the Kremlin line on issues such as Bosnia, Kosovo and Russian language rights in the Baltic;
- Imposes swingeing tariffs on European Union exports;
- Announces a “democracy promotion” scheme that funnels cash and social media help to far-right parties across Europe.
Legal and practical difficulties would abound. But every one of these ten steps is well within the bounds of a Trumpian tantrum. They spell doom. Europe’s defences would be crippled overnight. It would take ten years, working at top speed and with unlimited resources, to fill the security gap left by the US—and that is assuming without sabotage from Washington, DC. In a hostile atmosphere, it will be all but impossible. Europe will be caught between the Russian hammer and the American anvil.
How would European leaders respond? True, they can impose tariffs and sanctions, too. Germany could, in theory, evict the US Air Force from Ramstein. Italy could do the same with the naval base at Naples. But maintaining a unified stance in the face of this bullying would be hard. Some European countries (notably Britain) might think that even a bad transatlantic relationship is better than none at all. My guess is that Europe’s resistance would splinter within those ten weeks.
And what then? Capitulation terms are horrible. The US will keep Airstrip One (Britain) and other military facilities useful for the Middle East and Africa. It will demand exemptions from EU laws on competition, copyright, and privacy. Russia will be given the free hand it wants in neighbouring countries.
The US will be a big loser too, eventually. Strong, happy allies, bound by ties of friendship, are better than weak, resentful ones ruled by fear. Those halcyon days seem so long ago now.
Edward Lucas is a Non-resident Senior Fellow and Senior Advisor at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
War Without End: Deterring Russia’s Shadow War
Either Europe will continue allowing Russia’s shadow war to set the terms of escalation, or it will act now to prevent a larger war.
CEPA Forum 2025
Explore CEPA’s flagship event.
