The Brussels streetscape reflects the gratitude Europeans feel to the titans of the past, people like Jean Monnet, Robert Schuman, and Simone Weil. But in years to come, the grandest monument of all in the Belgian capital may be to Donald J Trump. Fans will lay flowers at the colossal gold figure of the American president on February 28 to mark his decisive contribution to their geopolitical emancipation, safety, and freedom.
On that day, parents will solemnly tell their children that his meltdown in the Oval Office finally prompted Europeans to take security seriously. Following the ejection of the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy from the White House, European leaders finally decided to take responsibility not only for Ukraine but for their own defense. In a series of hurried summits and phone calls, decades of complacency and greed gave way to a bleak, startled realization that when the US president proclaims “America First,” Europe must look after itself. The erstwhile ally is, at best, unreliable, at worst, actively hostile. Plan accordingly.
Fantasy? Perhaps. A worthier monument in the heart of Brussels would commemorate the millions of Ukrainians killed, maimed, traumatized, bereaved, immiserated, and exiled, whose sacrifice bought the rest of Europe the time it needed to grow up. A last-minute awakening may avert catastrophe, but European leaders’ sleep still enabled disaster. Nobody has ever properly apologized or atoned for those failures of defense and deterrence.
The test of any change in Europe is deeds, not words. The priority is to give Ukraine the money and weapons it needs to defend itself (something that, if done promptly, would have already ended the war). The stronger Ukraine’s military position, the harder it will be for the US administration to browbeat the Kyiv leadership into a ceasefire on unfavorable terms.
Europeans must also plan for Ukraine’s post-ceasefire security. They lack the troops, tanks, artillery, logistics, surveillance, and other assets needed for a solid conventional defense. Instead, they will have to rely on deterrence: air power and long-range fires, backed by political unity. The question on every decision-maker’s desk should be, “What risks and costs will my country bear if Putin comes back for a second helping?” Without credible answers to that, a renewed attack will doom not only Ukraine but those who rashly pledged to defend it.
That’s only the start. European NATO and EU countries will also have to rethink their own security from the bottom up. Where is the air and missile defense? What about conscription? How do we get a credible nuclear umbrella? How far can we still rely on American weapons? All these questions have answers; all come at a hefty price and with dangerous delays.
Vladimir Putin may not risk a direct military attack on a NATO member. But below the threshold of outright war, battles are already underway: sabotage of infrastructure, cyber-attacks, a deluge of dirty money and propaganda, and attempts to restore levers of economic influence. European leaders will need to boost their resilience and defense on all these fronts, too, from gas imports to defending democratic institutions.
This will cost a lot of money. Europeans will need to get used to higher taxes, lower living standards, and less generous public services. Political leaders must explain why the sacrifices are needed and do so credibly and with integrity. As the late Adlai Stevenson said, it is not enough to fight for your values, you have to live up to them.
The administration’s efforts to “Make America Great Again” may gravely damage the alliances that once underpinned US power. If Europeans rise to the challenge, they may prove the surprise winners.
Edward Lucas is a Non-resident Senior Fellow and Senior Advisor at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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