Georgia Drifts Away From the West

Georgia’s opposition lacks leadership and resources, which helps the country’s illiberal ruling party in its move away from the West.

By Francis Harris

January 27, 2025

Since the October parliamentary elections, Georgia has been seeing near-permanent protests against what the opposition describes as a “stolen election.” It is demanding a rerun.

The ruling Georgian Dream Party, which has been in power for 12 years with the support of traditionalist elements of the population, says the results are unchangeable.

International criticism has not subsided either. Tbilisi has been hit by sanctions from the US and European Union (EU) along with calls to minimize political contacts. This bolstered the protests, but while there were moments when the numbers reached 100,000 last year, by mid-January the anger had subsided somewhat, with lower attendance on the streets in the capital Tbilisi and other cities.

The protests lack effective leadership, which really erupted after the government said it would delay talks on EU integration until 2028. In Georgia, leadership matters. In the period since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, changes in power have only come through the emergence of new and strong political figures.

This happened in 2003’s Rose Revolution and again in 2012, when the United National Movement, headed by the now-imprisoned former president Mikheil Saakashvili, lost power to Georgian Dream.

The current leaders of the opposition, on the contrary, seem chronically disunited, lack charisma, and have failed to articulate a political program as a roadmap for the population to follow.

They are also short of resources — a vital element in organizing strong opposition across the country. In contrast, the ruling party, headed by the billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who has long dominated the political scene, enables it to further solidify power. Ivanishvili, who lives in a large glass mansion overlooking the capital and whose close family own property in Moscow, describes the West as the tool of a “global party of war.”

Georgia is meanwhile experiencing steady growth, bolstered by increased trade with neighboring countries and growing east-west transit between the European Union and China, which has left many Georgians feeling better off.

And the complexity of relations with the West means European capitals have held back. Georgia’s strategic importance as a bridge between Europe, the Caspian Basin, and Central Asia is used by the government in Tbilisi as a powerful tool in negotiations with the EU.

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Armenia’s growing alignment with the West, and Azerbaijan’s often tense ties with Moscow, underscore the complexity of regional relations and strengthen Georgia’s importance for both the West and Russia. For the West in particular, strong ties with Georgia are crucial for ensuring access to Armenia and maintaining broader influence in the region.

But there are other problems that distract the EU and the US from pressuring Georgia’s ruling party. Donald Trump’s return to the presidency is likely to mean the US showing less interest in the South Caucasus.

The new consensus in Washington is more about limiting financial support for distant countries and abstaining from interfering in others’ internal affairs unless US interests are at stake.

This favors Georgian Dream’s agenda of reducing dependence on the West and pursuing increasingly conservative policies, including 2024’s controversial laws on NGOs and LGBT rights, and embracing what it terms the multipolar world order. Critics say this just means a move towards the Kremlin and China.

The Biden administration responded to those laws by rescinding the strategic partnership with Tbilisi and limiting financial support, while the EU has pushed for similar measures and on January 27, excluded Georgia’s diplomats and officials from its visa-free system.

While Trump’s US foreign policy might be more inward-looking, Georgia’s strategic ties with China might create tension with Washington. And, even in the case of Russia, the new US administration could be tougher than expected, further complicating relations given Georgia’s warming relations with Moscow.

In the absence of a strong opposition or transformative leadership, the ongoing protests, while significant, are unlikely to bring about immediate change.

October’s municipal elections will mark an important moment to gauge public sentiment and the ruling party’s hold on power. Until then, it is likely Georgia will continue on its current trajectory of more centralized governance and a slow but clear move away from the West.

By writers at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA ) and Francis Harris, Managing Editor at Europe’s Edge.

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.