In June, NATO leaders agreed that allies will allocate at least 3.5% of GDP annually to hard defense by 2035, and a further 1.5% to more general security spending for a total of 5%.
Despite public proclamations of success, the debate was hard-fought behind closed doors. A group of countries, including the UK, successfully delayed the promised increases until 2035, a full decade after the start date.
The dispute was notable in exposing NATO’s dividing lines between a hardcore group of countries that see an imminent and worrying Russian threat, and those that do not. The surprise was only that the British, traditionally a hardline leader in continental defense, had swapped camps.
“Those that are geographically closer to Russia are not hanging about, while the UK, France, and Italy are acting more slowly,” said James Fennell, an analyst and former Royal Navy officer who was Director of the UK FCDO’s stabilization program in Ukraine from 2022-24. “It suggests the imperative is weaker the further you get from Russia, and isn’t helped by high levels of public debt. I do wonder if the new US National Security Strategy will change that calculus; now there’s a more hostile US, security issues are coming closer to home.”
The defense hawks comprise 10 of the 30 European NATO members. These are Germany, Poland, and the Nordic-Baltic Eight of the five Nordic countries plus the three Baltic states. The doves, for want of a better term, are only just meeting the old 2% NATO pledge or are effectively standing still. A middle group is raising spending at a moderate pace.
Below is an overview of selected NATO countries and their projected defense spending in the coming years. Defense expenditure figures for 2025 are NATO estimates, where available. Estimates for future spending are national numbers.
Poland: 4.48% of GDP in 2025
Poland is currently the highest spender in the alliance relative to GDP. Governments from both sides of the country’s fractious political divide agreed on the need for sharply increased capabilities long before the NATO pledge.
Polish defense spending rose steeply to 3.8% of GDP (or national wealth) in 2023 from 2.2% a year before. This will reach 4.48% this year and 4.8% next year, all of which is hard defense spending. Poland has made a number of enormous capability commitments, including US F-35 jets, British frigates, and South Korean tanks. It ultimately aims for the armed forces to more than double to 500,000 men and women.
Lithuania: 4% of GDP in 2025
Lithuania, one of three Baltic states bordering Russia, has been among the highest defense spenders in NATO. In 2025, the defense budget exceeded €3.3bn ($3.68bn).
It plans to spend much more. A rearmament program is investing in new equipment, including French self-propelled artillery. Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys has said that the country will allocate 5-6% of GDP to defense between 2026 and 2030.
Denmark: 3.22% of GDP in 2025
Denmark will allocate an additional 50 billion DKK ($7bn) to improve defenses in 2025 and 2026. It is a part of the Acceleration Fund intended to help the country meet NATO targets. Denmark will maintain defense spending of more than 3% of GDP in 2026.
Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said in October that Denmark will invest DKK 27.4 billion to strengthen its military presence in the Arctic and to purchase 16 new F-35 aircraft, on top of the previous order for 27 US jets.
Finland: 2.77% of GDP in 2025
Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced that Finland’s defense spending will rise by €488m to €6.5 billion in 2025. The increase is mainly due to new fighter jet acquisitions. The country aims to raise military spending toward 3% by 2029 and says it will reach NATO’s 5% target by 2032.
Sweden: 2.51% of GDP in 2025
The Swedish government has proposed more than SEK 170 billion ($17.9bn) in additional funding for defense between 2025 and 2030. In March, before the NATO meeting in June, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that Sweden aims to increase spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2030.
Netherlands: 2.49% of GDP in 2025
The Netherlands will increase its defense budget to €27bn in 2026 and aims to meet NATO’s 3.5% target by 2035. The Ministry of Defense also plans to increase the number of military personnel from 70,000 to 200,000.
Germany: 2.4% of GDP in 2025
Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil pledged earlier this year to reach 3.5% of GDP by 2029 (from 2.4% this year), with the defense budget expected to double to €162bn ($189bn) by then.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in November that Germany will not reach the 3.5% goal but is projected to hit 3.05% by 2029. A law approved in December aims to raise the armed forces’ strength to 260,000 regular personnel backed by 200,000 reservists.
United Kingdom: 2.4% of GDP in 2025
In the 2024/2025 financial year, the UK spent £60.2 billion ($79.8bn) on defense. Prior to the NATO meeting that set the 3.5% target, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that the UK will spend 2.5% of GDP on defense by 2027. The government has not laid out a timeline to meet the 5% target beyond saying it will be achieved by 2035, as NATO requires. It left defense spending unchanged in its November budget, reportedly bringing warnings from the chiefs of staff that they will be unable to fulfill the goals of the government’s own Strategic Defence Review published earlier in 2025.
France: 2.05% of GDP in 2025
France plans to spend ($75bn) on defense in 2027. An additional €3.5bn is scheduled for the 2026 budget and another €3bn in 2027. Although France is moving toward NATO’s new spending benchmark, the 3.5% target remains far off. President Macron says spending should reach at least 3% of GDP by 2030, but the country is very heavily indebted, and the source of any new money is unclear. With the UK, nuclear-armed France has traditionally been a leader on European defense, but like the UK, risks this status as other European states overtake it. Also like the UK, it is spending a large part of its defense budget on the renewal of its submarine-based nuclear deterrent.
Italy: 2.01% of GDP in 2025
Italy’s Defense Ministry announced €31.3bn ($36.2bn) in defense spending for 2025 in October. The budget is expected to remain stable in 2026 and 2027. The planned increase is enough for Italy to meet the previous 2% goal. The Defense Minister says he hopes to raise spending by as much as 0.2% of GDP annually from next year until 2035, so as to meet the NATO target.
Spain: 2% of GDP in 2025
Spain, seen by President Trump and many European allies as a defense laggard, explicitly refused to join NATO’s commitment to NATO’s 3.5% goal for 2035. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez secured an exception, capping Spain’s defense budget at approximately 2.1% of GDP. Sánchez has said the current spending level is “sufficient”.
European defense budgets have surged in recent years. In 2024, EU member states collectively allocated €343bn to defense, marking the 10th consecutive year of increases. According to the European Council, that figure is expected to rise to €381 billion ($440bn) in 2025.
In addition, the EU has created a €150bn rearmament loan fund, known as Security Action for Europe (SAFE), allowing member states to apply for loans for defense investments until 2030. Canada has become the first NATO country outside the EU to join the initiative.
Heine Sandvik Brekke is an Editorial Intern at CEPA. He is currently studying at the American University in Washington, DC. Heine is pursuing a degree in journalism and has worked in a variety of editorial roles, including at the daily newspaper Aftenposten. He also served in the Norwegian Army as a conscript in Northern Norway.
Francis Harris is Managing Editor of CEPA’s geopolitical website, Europe’s Edge.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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