Despite some skepticism about the newly created role of the EU Commissioner for Defense and Space — which has been described as poorly defined, underfunded, and politically irrelevant — there is reason to believe the appointment of Kubilius is good news for Europe.
Having led the Lithuanian government twice, between 1999-2000 and 2008-2012, Kubilius, 67, is a political heavyweight with a record of successfully maneuvering his country through challenging times.
His political background has been shaped by global crises and by the presence on the border of a hostile Russia. He has no illusions about the Kremlin and its ambitions, arguably a key requirement for the new post.
During the financial crisis of 2008-2009, his government implemented rigorous reforms, allowing the country to emerge from the crisis as one of the fastest-growing European economies.
Kubilius also successfully used European instruments, such as the Third Energy Package and interrelated infrastructure requirements, to guide Lithuania away from its complete dependence on Russian energy.
Reforms between 2010 and 2012, which laid the ground for the installation of the first floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal off its coast in 2014, enabled Lithuania to be the first EU country to ban all energy imports from Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
During the first weeks of the all-out war, Kubilius initiated a parliamentary and expert support network focused on military and humanitarian assistance, sanctions against Russia, Ukraine’s EU integration, its post-war reconstruction, and the establishment of an international tribunal on war crimes.
In his latest role as a member of the European Parliament, he was clear about the need for the international community to commit to Ukrainian victory instead of half-heartedly trying to stave off its defeat.
There are huge challenges in European defense. Action is urgently needed given Russia’s imperial expansionism in the EU’s immediate neighborhood and at a time when the focus of the US is gradually shifting toward Asia.
But common European defense endeavors have been poorly financed so far, with the new EU Defense Industrial Strategy backed with just €2bn ($2.23bn). Much more will be needed to compensate for the shortfall in member states’ arms stocks as a result of years of neglect and sending weapons to Kyiv.
His first major act after the nomination was aimed at exactly this deficit. Kubilius proposed that European states should establish minimum inventories of items including artillery shells, comparing such a program to the EU’s requirement for natural gas reserves. It’s an eye-catching proposal and one that immediately establishes the new commissioner’s ambitions.
As he suggested, Europe’s current defense policy in many ways resembles its faltering energy policy in the early 2000s. The non-existent internal market, dominant monopolies, long-term bilateral deals, and limited or no infrastructure interconnectedness mirrors today’s nationally driven defense procurement, with its lack of coordination and common standards. Bringing European solutions to the contested defense industrial field will be one of the key tasks for Kubilius.
But he will have much more on his plate. The new role will be focused on enabling timely, resolute, and effective defense on the European continent, and improving cross-border interoperability and coordination will be imperative.
Military mobility and logistics, for example, is a long-neglected subject, especially on the most vulnerable parts of the Eastern Flank. NATO has little leverage over the installation of quality road and rail connections across the European continent, but it is an area that’s very much within the European Commission’s purview.
Having a defense commissioner focused on improving cross-border connections could be a huge asset in speeding up dual-use infrastructure upgrades (see the long-running saga of the Rail Baltica project.)
Similarly, enhancing societal resilience in Europe by strengthening civil preparedness for war and catastrophes will be a crucial area of work.
The whole-of-society approach to defense has to find its way back to the European political agenda. Ukraine demonstrated that a well-informed, well-prepared society in which every individual knows what is to be done in an emergency is fundamental to successful defense.
All of these tasks will have to be accomplished together with Estonia’s Kaja Kallas, the new high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. It is significant that the two portfolios went to the Baltic states, with their shared experience of Russia, shared perception of threat, and vision of how Europe can restore peace and security. Both believe in a robust approach to the Russian regime and other authoritarian states threatening the free countries of the West.
Creating a single European market for defense, removing bottlenecks for military mobility, and enhancing Europe’s civil preparedness will be challenging tasks for the new commissioner. Having Kubilius in the chair should inspire confidence that Europe will get on track to achieving its goals.
Dr. Justina Budginaite-Froehly is a researcher focusing on strategic security issues and geopolitics in the Baltic Sea region.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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