US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth arrived in Warsaw with sweet nothings, calling Poland a “model ally” while praising its defense spending and loyalty. But beneath the flattery, the dynamic was familiar: Poland wants real commitment while the US wants something much more casual.
This has been Poland’s geopolitical problem, repeated throughout history — its belief that loyalty, alliances, and playing by the rules will guarantee security. In 1939, Britain and France promised to stand by Poland against Germany. After 1989, Poland bet everything on NATO and the EU as a permanent shield. And today, after pouring billions into defense, hosting American troops, and backing Washington at every turn, Poland is once again looking for certainty. And once again, it’s being breadcrumbed with reminders that in geopolitics, commitment is conditional.
After a morning jog along Warsaw’s riverfront with US Marines, Hegseth stopped short of ruling out a future reduction of NATO forces in the region as part of potential negotiations with Russia.
Asked at a press briefing with Poland’s Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz whether US forces in Poland were there to stay, Hegseth deflected. He repeated the standard line about American forces being a deterrent to Russia. But he also warned that the future is uncertain, that nothing lasts forever, and that Europe should prepare to take more responsibility for its own security.
For Poland, the lipstick perma-smile is getting harder to maintain. It is one of NATO’s biggest military spenders, dedicating nearly 5% of its GDP to defense, far exceeding the alliance’s 2% benchmark. It has invested billions in US weapons, from F-35 fighter jets to Abrams tanks. It has hosted thousands of American troops, built infrastructure to support them, and done everything possible to make itself indispensable to Washington.
Right now, around 10,000 US troops are stationed in Poland. A big presence but still rotational. Unlike Germany, where American forces have had a permanent base since the Cold War, Washington has never given Poland the same status.
The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), signed in 2020, was supposed to be a milestone. It allowed the expansion of US military infrastructure, including storage facilities, logistics hubs, and training sites. But it didn’t offer a permanent base. Instead, it reinforced the idea that the US would come and go as needed, with Poland picking up much of the cost.
The centerpiece of this setup is Camp Kościuszko in Poznań, home to the US Army’s V Corps forward command. Officially, this is the nerve center for US ground forces in Europe. In reality, it’s a small command post, not the full-scale headquarters Poland had hoped for. Then there’s the Aegis Ashore missile defense site in Redzikowo, operational since 2024. Poland points to it as proof of America’s long-term commitment. But the system was built to counter threats from Iran, not Russia.
Misplaced faith in agreements also defined Poland’s approach to security in 1939. It signed military alliances with Britain and France, believing these would deter Hitler. When Germany invaded, Warsaw assumed its allies would respond. But while Britain and France declared war, they offered almost no real, practical help as Poland was overrun. Shortly afterwards, the Soviet Union invaded from the east in coordination with the Nazis and Poland’s fate was sealed.
During the war, Winston Churchill spoke of Poland’s sacrifices as a “bank account of blood,” a metaphorical ledger that would be honored when Europe was reshaped. Poland made deposit after deposit on the battlefield, believing it was securing its post-war future. But when it came time to withdraw in 1945 at Yalta, the account was an illusion, and Poland was handed over to Stalin.
Even after regaining its independence in 1989, Poland continued to believe that integration into NATO and the EU would mean permanent security. And for a time, it worked. Poland modernized its military, became one of NATO’s most reliable members, and followed EU directives with near-religious discipline.
But the rise of Donald Trump and the shifting priorities of the US have made it clear that in the new world, it is more blessed to give than to receive.
The lesson should be obvious by now. Poland’s mistake is not that it tries to do everything right. It is that it assumes this will be enough. But in international politics, commitment is never about fairness or loyalty. It is about power, leverage, and interests. And when those interests shift, no amount of rule-following can change the outcome.”
Stuart Dowell is a Warsaw-based journalist covering Polish politics, culture, and history. His writing has been featured in both Polish and UK media.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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