In Georgia, a forgotten opposition is in despair. Over recent weeks, the country’s ruling party, Georgian Dream (GD), has jailed a number of opposition leaders. Nika Melia, Zurab Japaridze, Givi Targamadze, and others — all associated with the previous government of the United National Movement (UNM) — are now behind bars.
Former President Mikheil Saakashvili, who was initially imprisoned for nine years, has now been sentenced to another four and a half years. The message, as in Russia, is that regime opponents can be held indefinitely on the orders of a state-directed judicial system.
The country’s increasingly despotic government is not limiting itself to jailing opponents. GD has likewise jailed leaders of Lelo, a political force that has never been associated with the UNM, but is increasingly regarded as a potential political threat.
Its leaders, the former bankers Badri Japaridze and Mamuka Khazaradze, have likewise been jailed, initially for eight months. Others remain at liberty, but they too are expected to be behind bars before long. One is Giorgi Gakharia, a former prime minister under GD, who has not returned to the country from abroad, possibly because he fears arrest.
These developments indicate that the party and its leader, the billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, are determined to outlaw the majority of the opposition. He peddles a conspiracy theory that Georgia is under attack from something called “the global party of war.” The Kremlin meanwhile, supports the crackdown of Georgia’s once-vibrant democracy, saying it merely seeks to restore stability.
Parallel to the arrests, the ruling party has introduced a raft of laws which spur fears on that free speech is receding. One covers a toughening of defamation laws, another restricts media coverage in courts. The party also pushed for introduction of heavy penalties against alleged insults on social media.
The arrests have not translated into major protests. On the contrary, the momentum has long gone from an opposition once able to summon hundreds of thousands into the streets. Protests now are limited to a few hundred determined demonstrators. The perennially divided opposition remains unable to present a united front, unable even to agree joint participation in October’s municipal elections.
Beyond internal divisions, a lack of finance, proper leadership and a lack of political vision, the international situation does not favor the opposition. It has been protesting in the streets of Tbilisi, saying that October’s parliamentary elections were rigged and initially received strong support from the US and European Union (EU).
And yet, any hope that Georgian Dream may have had for a new dawn in relations with the advent of the second Trump administration appears overblown.
Party leaders had pointed to a similarity of outlook. They cited supposedly shared views on conservatism in domestic affairs and realism in foreign policy. This alignment of ideas was expected to also help bridge differences between the two countries. It has not turned out like that.
Georgian Dream has made some effort. First, there is a new Georgian ambassador to the US, who will focus on reinstating close relations. In May, the Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze wrote to the American leadership, supporting Trump’s battle with the “Deep State” and hoping for an improvement of bilateral relations.
The American leadership has not yet directly responded, but the signs are not especially promising. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that US policy toward Georgia will be guided primarily by American diplomats based in the region rather than by high-ranking political appointees in Washington.
Ivanishvili refused to meet the US ambassador in May, apparently angered by the near-$750m he is owed by a Swiss bank, but which is frozen by Western sanctions. The envoy was carrying a letter from Trump. The following month, a senior State Department official visited Tbilisi for private talks.
US-Georgia relations sank to their lowest point in 2024 when GD re-introduced the so-called agents law targeting the sprawling NGO sector in Georgia. The Biden administration responded by abrogating the strategic partnership that the two countries had had in place since 2008, and signed after Georgia’s invasion by Russian troops.
The US Senate is currently considering the so-called MEGOBARI Act, to “counter the influence of the Chinese Communist Party, the Iranian Regime, and the Russian Federation in the nation of Georgia.” It takes aim at Georgian Dream and could lead to a raft of sanctions against regime figures if passed.
The bleak truth for both government and opposition, however, is that the South Caucasus are not a priority for the United States. The EU is likewise distracted by other issues. No one is likely to get much help from beyond the country’s borders.
By writers at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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