The Kyiv government has understood two important things about Africa:
- Firstly, it really matters. In international organizations like the United Nations (UN), the continent has 54 members. It’s a huge number representing more than a quarter of all UN members, a reminder that the court of world opinion contains many Africans.
- Secondly, its countries often have sentimental and practical relationships with the Kremlin that reach back into the 20th century. Ukraine, which only regained its independence in 1991, is a relative latecomer.
But that truth also contains the kernel of Ukraine’s policy for Africa. Even as African nations won their independence from the 1950s onwards, Ukraine was still laboring under Moscow’s imperial yoke.
That messaging, reminding Africa that Ukraine too is a victim of colonialism, can resonate with the continent’s experience. But it is not an easy message to convey, because Russian propaganda tirelessly positions itself as an ally of the oppressed.
Ukraine makes the case, nonetheless. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking to African media representatives in August 2022, stated that “Russia is a colonizer who wants to destroy our state” and that “Many of your ancestors went through this.”
Some are sympathetic to the message. Kenyan UN Ambassador Martin Kimani has compared Ukraine’s plight to Africa’s colonial legacy, while that country called Russia’s decision to end the Black Sea grain deal a “stab in the back.”
Ukraine is working to expand its presence in Africa. Its diplomatic counteroffensive was launched by Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in August, and Ukraine had previously announced it would open 10 new embassies on the continent, starting with Rwanda and Mozambique. During his latest visit to South Africa in early November, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister expressed enthusiasm, stating that the visit marked the beginning of a new chapter in the relations between Ukraine and South Africa.
Kuleba stated: “Our strategy is not to replace Russia but to free Africa from Russia’s grip.”
This will prove a challenge in some countries. Russia’s Wagner mercenaries, now directly run by GRU military intelligence, have sold their services to African elites, providing armed men in return for precious minerals. They have been accused of numerous war crimes. More broadly, African countries also account for around 20% of Russian weapon exports.
The process of improving ties with the continent will not result in instant success. Andriy Korniychuk at the Brussels-based Foundation for European Progressive Studies said: “Finland invested a lot in soft power via diplomacy in Africa, but it took three-to-four decades to really start observing results of such soft power investments.”
Ukraine’s success “is more about getting your foot in the door and setting the foundations for what can come later. Moreover, Ukraine needs a very good long-term strategy, focusing on what it can bring to the table,” he said.
And many African nations do recognize Russian aggression. In February, 30 African nations supported a UN General Assembly resolution calling for an end to the war, a slight increase from 30 last year. Only two, Mali and Eritrea, backed Russia.
Guido Lanfranchi, a research fellow at The Hague-based Clingendael Institute, explained: “For many [African governments] there is an interest in keeping a ‘non-aligned’ position. This means that, if Ukraine offers to help them in some concrete way, they may not shut the door to that for ideological reasons, but may explore avenues for cooperation, while also continuing their engagement with Russia.”
He noted that while Kenya has adopted a clear pro-Ukrainian position, at the same time it also welcomed Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in May.
Russia knows the importance of Africa in demonstrating world opinion and for saleable natural resources and has maintained a strong presence in Africa with 40 embassies. It continues to channel its truthless explanations of events, for example, Lavrov’s July 2022 suggestion that Ukraine was blocking its own grain shipments through the use of sea mines.
In a similar vein, Lavrov has told Africans, apparently with a straight face, that Russia “hasn’t stained itself with colonialism.” A Gallup poll, which included over 1,000 African respondents from 23 countries, found that African approval of Russia’s leadership “has remained consistently higher than the global average.” In Mali, where a UN report found that Russian mercenaries were responsible for the slaughter of 500 people, Russia had an 84% approval rating.
Ukraine has to roll the rock back up the hill, and it will be a long, hard task. But success would mark a significant achievement. Russia has been getting away with murder, in Africa and Ukraine, for far too long.
David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist covering Eastern Europe. He can be found on Twitter/X @DVKirichenko.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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