The security of the Baltic Sea region will continue to be determined by the climate of east-west relations and EU-NATO cohesion.
Reports
Close to the Wind: Background – State of Play
In the Baltic Sea region Russia has strengthened its quantitative and qualitative advantage.
Close to the Wind: The Bigger Picture – The Strategic Context
The United States and its allies are in the process of a contentious, protracted, and belated effort to assess and respond to the threats from Russia and China, amid disruptive economic, technological, and public health challenges.
Close to the Wind: What Russia Wants
The Kremlin aims to be the dominant power in Eurasia, using Russia’s size to exert strong influence over its neighbors and to bargain with big countries on an equal basis.
Close to the Wind: The Military Threat
Russia’s military capabilities and plans, coupled with the changing nature of warfare and the disadvantageous topography of the Baltic states, shape the strategic outlook for the Baltic Sea region.
Close to the Wind: Balancing the Books
Alliance credibility — or lack of it — is, therefore, the key factor in regional security. It should not be taken for granted.
Close to the Wind: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth
The operational and strategic roles of the different headquarters involved in the Baltic Sea region are unclear, and to outsiders even bewildering.
Close to the Wind: Conclusion – Shortcomings and Gaps
The security of the Atlantic alliance and all its member states is only as strong as that of its weakest and most peripheral members.
What the United States Can Learn from Estonia on E-Governance
The building blocks of a seamless digital society
Building Common Ground in Transatlantic Cybersecurity – A Baltic Approach
As sectors continue to grow more dependent on data flows, cybersecurity threats are becoming a bigger priority for the United States and the European Union.
How Can the Baltic States Support 5G Security through Transatlantic Cooperation?
5G networks will be the backbone of the future digital economy. Europe and the United States must work together to secure them.
Hybrid Warfare of the Future
Sharpening NATO’s Competitive Edge
Building a Trans-Polar Bridge
The long-neglected High North is changing fast. An international Arctic agreement is needed now, before trouble flares.
Partnership Without Substance
Sino-Russian Relations in Central and Eastern Europe
Information Bedlam: Russian and Chinese Information Operations During Covid-19
Countering Russian and Chinese information operations will require a full-scale approach across the transatlantic space
The CEPA Military Mobility Project
Moving Mountains for Europe’s Defense
Military Mobility Project Appendix 1: Nordic-Baltic Route
Anticipating a Changing Geostrategic Environment
Military Mobility Project Appendix 2: Suwałki Corridor
NATO’s Achilles’ Heel
Military Mobility Project Appendix 3: Focşani Gate
Key Terrain in NATO’s Southeastern Region
Military Mobility Appendix 4: Western Balkans
Europe’s Soft Underbelly
Military Mobility Appendix 5: Mediterranean
A Potential EU Peacekeeping Mission
The Serbia-Kosovo Dialogue: Ripe for Resolution?
The United States and Europe must invest more to help Belgrade and Pristina find common ground
What Can We Do About Poland and Hungary?
What’s gone wrong, why it matters, where it’s heading, and what to do about it
The Evolution of Russian Hybrid Warfare: Executive Summary
“Chaos strategy through hybrid, multi-vector warfare is here to stay.”
The Evolution of Russian Hybrid Warfare: Ukraine
“The primary goal of Russia’s military operations at this stage is to keep Ukrainians demoralized and stressed from the ever-present threat of ramped-up aggression.”
The Evolution of Russian Hybrid Warfare: Estonia
“The Kremlin’s efforts against Estonia are focused primarily on the country’s less-integrated Russian speakers and Estonia’s highly digitalized society.”
The Evolution of Russian Hybrid Warfare: United Kingdom
“Russia’s main strategic priority for the U.K. can be summarized as cultivating an atmosphere conducive to increasing Russia’s influence there — whether in absolute or relative terms.”
The Evolution of Russian Hybrid Warfare: EU/NATO
“The Russian leadership’s ability to achieve its goals — regime security and great power status through weakening the EU and NATO — comes from its power of destruction rather than its power of attraction.”
The Evolution of Russian Hybrid Warfare: Conclusion
“Geopolitical competition will look less like a cold war and more like a constant barrage of violent episodes, low-threshold probes of Western readiness, and strategic deception and obfuscation of targets and intentions.”
The Black Sea … or a Black Hole?
“What happens in the Black Sea doesn’t stay in the Black Sea”
Red Dragon on the Black Sea
Understanding the security consequences of Chinese involvement in Georgian infrastructure
A Transatlantic Effort to Take on China Starts with Technology
Only unity on tech policy can keep democracies’ competitive edge.
A China Strategy
In an era of geopolitical competition, the West — the U.S.-led countries of the transatlantic alliance and their East Asian allies — lacks a strategy for dealing with its most formidable competitor: the People’s Republic of China
Countering Russian and Chinese Cyber-Aggression
Prospects for transatlantic cooperation
Democratic Offense Against Disinformation
The United States and Europe must now pivot from defense to offense to address the disinformation challenge.
The Future of Belarus
A ‘velvet,’ but not ‘color,’ revolution heralds dramatic change in the medium term.
Russia’s Assets and Liabilities in Belarus
Belarus represents a testing ground for Putin and a potentially dangerous harbinger of things to come.
An Agenda for NATO’s Next Generation
To survive the next 70 years, NATO must do what it has always done — adapt.
Russian Youth and Civic Engagement
Unlike their elders whose grievances were largely economic, young Russians, “Putin’s generation”, want political change in Russia.
One Flank, One Threat, One Presence
A Strategy for NATO’s Eastern Flank
Modernizing Russia Project
Over the last decade, the Kremlin’s policies have consistently traded Russia’s economic development for Russia’s great-power status.
Until Something Moves
Reinforcing the Baltic Region in Crisis and War
A Risky Case
Nord Stream 2’s Energy Charter Treaty Litigation
Strengthening NATO’s Eastern Flank
A Strategy for Baltic-Black Sea Coherence
Will Belarus Choose the West?
Prospects for Democracy in Minsk
Cyberwarfare and Critical Infrastructure
Assessing the New Threat Facing the Baltic States and the NATO Alliance
Poland’s Role in Securing NATO’s Eastern Flank
Military Mobility and the Central Transportation Hub
From Opportunity to Threat
The Pernicious Effects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on Western Balkan-EU Integration
Nord Stream 2
A Pipeline Dividing Europe?
Revising the Theory of Hybrid War
Lessons From Ukraine