It has been more than 10 years since Serbia’s foreign minister and the US Secretary of State convened a bilateral meeting at a high level. So their August 6 encounter marked a moment of significance.
Other State Department officials have also been busy, with senior State Department official Brendan Hanrahan visiting Belgrade as part of a Western Balkans tour.
Serbian ministers openly express hope for a new dawn in relations. Foreign Minister Marko Đurić said of his meeting with Marco Rubio: “This visit is a huge opportunity for Serbia to begin strategic cooperation with the new administration early on . . . I believe we’ll see more results and concrete steps in the weeks and months ahead.”
Đurić stated that during the talks, the US Secretary of State clearly conveyed that the personal view of the American president – that he wants better relations with Serbia – is also the stance of the US administration.
Serbia is also encouraged that not only was it one of the first to meet Rubio, the administration’s new ambassador is the only one to have been nominated; he is also of Serbian origin.
For many years — at least since the ceasefire agreement of 1999 — US policy in the Western Balkans has been defined primarily by Kosovo–Serbia relations, shaped through a lens of conflict resolution and normalization talks. This singular focus has often obscured broader strategic opportunities — such as defense cooperation, economic modernization, and regional energy integration — and limited Washington’s ability to engage in other spheres.
Under the Trump Administration, that may change. Serbia could be an anchor of regional stability, but as an emerging destination for US strategic and commercial engagement. With Europe’s largest lithium reserves, a dynamic tech sector, and growing US investment — including Jared Kushner’s planned redevelopment of Defense Ministry site bombed by NATO aircraft in 1999 — Belgrade is signaling both the capacity and intent to deepen ties.
A 2024 Gallup survey found that 59% of Serbians would have voted for Donald Trump — the highest level of support in Europe. This reflects more than ideological affinity; it suggests a pragmatic opening to redefine US–Serbia relations amid shifting geopolitical realities. While the legacy of the 1999 NATO intervention lingers, Serbian perceptions of the United States are evolving — driven by regional instability, economic interest, and the view of Washington as a necessary counterbalance to both Moscow and Beijing.
Still, Serbia’s warming ties with the United States will need to coexist with deepening relations with China. The countries declared “ironclad friendship” last year and agreed on a joint military exercise on Chinese soil in July. Its balancing act also extends to Moscow — President Vučić attended celebrations for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Moscow in May.
Even so, this relationship is weakening. Since 2022, Serbia has scaled back military cooperation with Russia and has quietly emerged as an indirect supplier of munitions to Ukraine, with Serbian-made ammunition flowing through third-party countries — a development that has drawn rebukes from Moscow.
Concurrently, growing US frustration with Kosovo’s leadership under Prime Minister Albin Kurti has created political space to reassess Belgrade’s role. Both Biden and Trump officials — including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, former Special Envoy Richard Grenell, and former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien — have publicly criticized Kurti for obstructing EU-led normalization efforts and escalating tensions in northern Kosovo. This allows Serbia to present itself as a more constructive and more interested in stabilization in accordance with a shared regional interest.
Here are four areas that could offer a comprehensive US–Serbia strategic partnership anchored in mutual interests across four key pillars:
1. Defense Cooperation
Serbia’s defense industry is gaining recognition for quality and reliability, with exports to markets such as Israel and Ukraine. Its long-standing partnership with the Ohio National Guard under the State Partnership Program offers a template for deeper defense ties. Serbia also continues to engage with NATO through the Partnership for Peace framework and has hosted joint exercises, including Platinum Wolf, with participation from alliance member states. As Serbia pursues defense modernization, US firms are well-positioned to support systems integration, joint training, and crisis-response capabilities. A stronger Serbian military, aligned with US and NATO standards, enhances regional deterrence without requiring new American deployments.
2. Energy Diversification
Serbia is accelerating its efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy. The 2023 completion of the Serbia-Bulgaria Gas Interconnector was a milestone, linking Serbia to EU energy infrastructure. Belgrade is also planning new natural gas interconnectors with Romania and North Macedonia. Simultaneously, Serbia is seeking to reduce Russian ownership in its national energy company, NIS and to avert scheduled US sanctions — a politically sensitive but strategically vital goal. These shifts create substantial opportunities for US investment in liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, pipeline infrastructure, and refinery modernization. By supporting Serbia’s energy independence, the US can both undermine Moscow’s leverage and expand its commercial footprint in the Balkans.
3. Critical Minerals and the Electric Vehicle Supply Chain
Serbia holds one of Europe’s largest lithium reserves — essential for electric vehicle (EV) production — as well as significant boron deposits, critical for defense and nuclear applications. These resources are strategically important amid intensifying global competition with China, which dominates many links in the critical minerals supply chain. Attempts to develop Serbia’s lithium sector — most notably the Rio Tinto project — have sparked widespread public protests, but the underlying strategic value remains, as the European Union has said. US engagement can help Serbia responsibly unlock these resources, establish secure transatlantic supply chains, and anchor Belgrade more deeply in Western economic networks.
4. Technology and Innovation
Serbia’s tech sector is increasingly dynamic, rooted in strong science and technology education and a growing number of companies engaged with AI, cybersecurity, and data analytics. Major US firms — including Microsoft, Oracle, NCR, and Databricks — operate R&D hubs across the country. Indigenous success stories like Nordeus and HTEC Group show Serbia’s capacity for innovation. Joint ventures and workforce development programs could elevate Serbia’s role as a regional technology hub, enhancing transatlantic competitiveness in next-generation digital industries.
As Washington reconsiders its approach to the Western Balkans, US policy toward Serbia should also evolve. Relegating the US–Serbia relationship to the confines of Kosovo policy is no longer tenable. Belgrade is actively seeking deeper ties with the United States, and Washington should not allow disagreements over Kosovo to obstruct the formation of a durable strategic partnership.
A broader US–Serbia relationship — rooted in defense, energy, critical minerals, and innovation — offers far-reaching benefits. It would reduce Serbia’s vulnerability to other external actors, anchor it more firmly in the transatlantic community, and provide the United States with a capable, self-reliant partner in a region that matters.
Vuk Velebit is Co-Founder & President of the Pupin Initiative, a leading platform for advancing US-Serbia relations.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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