On or around July 16, it happened again: a tanker linked to Russia exploded under mysterious circumstances. It was the eighth such explosion involving a Russian-linked ship since the beginning of the year.
No one has claimed responsibility for the incidents, but analysts point to Ukraine. Most countries would be outraged if ships began exploding after calling at their ports, but, with its full-scale invasion and continued war against Ukraine, Russia has earned its misfortune.
The Pushpa, a shadow tanker which sometimes sails without flag registration, is not the kind of visitor any country would like to see in its waters, but, like any vessel, it enjoys the right to passage.
When it sails to and from the Russian port of Ust-Luga, as it regularly does, Finland and Estonia simply have to allow the multiple rule-breaker to traverse the Gulf of Finland. And other Baltic countries whose waters it passes through have to do the same.
But sometime around July 16, there was an explosion on board the sanctioned oil tanker as it sailed through the Mediterranean. The cause has not been announced, but it was the latest in a chain of blasts involving vessels linked to Russia.
On June 30, for example, the oil tanker Vilamuora was damaged by an explosion off the coast of Libya. In February, no fewer than three tankers were affected, including one in the port at Ust-Luga. Maritime analysts have registered eight suspicious explosions involving Russian-linked vessels this year.
If ships regularly calling at other countries’ ports began exploding, there would rightly be outrage at such blatant attacks on the global maritime order. There would also be suspicion it was another installment of Russia’s grayzone aggression against the West — sabotaging vessels so shipping lines stop calling at affected ports.
Whoever is planning and executing the attacks appears set on disabling the fleet of ships that transport Russian oil and help pay for the war on Ukraine and its people. Some vessels do so according to the rules, but a shadow fleet carries Russian oil, which is sold above the price cap in breach of restrictions.
While no one has claimed responsibility for any of the blasts, it is widely believed that Ukraine is behind at least some of them. Few other countries or groupings would have the skill or motivation for such attacks.
Under ordinary circumstances, explosions involving merchant vessels would be considered abominable, an affront against global shipping, the freedom of the seas, and the rules-based international order. But the targeted ships have been doing business with Russia and generating revenues for the Kremlin’s campaign of murderous terrorism in Ukraine.
It’s a painful reality that Ukraine is militarily weaker than Russia, which is why President Vladimir Putin thought the “special military operation” would be over in days. Ukraine still has the structural disadvantage of a much smaller population — so fewer people for its armed forces — but has made innovative and successful use of the resources it does have.
Its drone industry has boomed since the beginning of the war, for example, building 2.2 million First-Person View (FPV) drones last year compared to 600,000 in 2023. Some 96% of the FPV drones deployed by Ukraine last year were domestically manufactured, according to the Georgetown Security Review.
Ukrainians have also carried out several assassinations of Russians involved in the war. On July 13, Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency announced that Russian agents who had assassinated one of its own colonels three days earlier had been “liquidated.”
Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine and repeatedly violated the Geneva Conventions, for example by torturing POWs and targeting civilians, Ukraine’s obligation to observe strict rules of “gentlemanly” conduct has been challenged. What might come next? More ship explosions? New innovative attacks?
The Kremlin has acted to try to stop there being any more explosions in Russian ports, with Putin signing a decree that requires all ships calling in the country to obtain FSB approval.
But the easiest way for Russia to steer clear of unpleasant surprises, including tanker explosions, would be to withdraw from Ukraine. Three and a half years into the war, that seems a vain hope.
Elisabeth Braw is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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