The dramatic victory of the pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, in Romania’s second-round presidential vote on May 18 has been hailed as an endorsement of the EU and ongoing support for Ukraine.
The relief was clear in the congratulatory messages that flooded in to herald Dan’s 54%-46% win. Everyone who was anyone in Brussels and among the big European powers offered their sincere best wishes.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Romania’s key ally in the West, was one of the first to congratulate Dan, saying that “despite numerous attempts at manipulation, Romanians have tonight chosen democracy, the rule of law, and the European Union.” Posting on social media, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Dan, saying it was a “historic victory.”
France, Germany, and other European countries viewed Dan’s alternative, the Euroskeptic firebrand George Simion, as another disruptor in the mold of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán at a time when European unity against Russia is considered more necessary than ever.
Russia took the news with bad grace. Its Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova responded to claims of meddling as it became clear that Simion had lost: “First of all, please don’t call them elections,” TASS reported her as saying. Moscow has also denied Romanian allegations that it meddled in the original presidential ballot last year and this time too.
Dan, a 55-year-old mathematics PhD defied expectations to win decisively. He went into the runoff with half the support of frontrunner Simion and though polls predicted he’d caught up, supporters feared it would not be enough.
The victory assures Europe and Ukraine that Romania will continue to work with efforts to supply Ukraine with arms and other assistance while denying Hungary and Slovakia a third EU member to disrupt the current consensus. Dan will now move to form a pro-European government. Moldova, too, feared that a Simion victory would mean the loss of a key EU ally and derail its accession process to the bloc.
Former Romanian President Traian Basescu warned that a Simion victory risked making the country a buffer state between Russia and the EU, cast adrift and with little influence.
The election transfixed and polarized the nation of 19 million and was billed as an existential choice for the country’s future. Record numbers turned out to vote, with participation rising from 54% to 65% in the second round, the highest in three decades.
In his campaign, the centrist Dan promised to keep supporting Kyiv in its war against Russia. He has pledged essential reforms to curb Romania’s 9.3% budget deficit, the largest in the EU, and to crack down on corruption.
He has much to do for a deeply divided electorate that came very close to turfing out the pro-European political elite that has dominated the country for decades. Disillusionment is especially strong in poorer, rural areas that feel left behind as urban areas have seen rising wealth and improving living standards. Romania’s worst-off areas are the poorest in the EU. Voters in these regions were especially hard hit by the rising cost of living triggered by Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine.
Meanwhile, corruption is deeply embedded. Romania is third from the bottom of the EU table for graft, with only Bulgaria and Hungary showing a worse performance.
Alongside serious foreign policy and economic challenges, Dan has tough work to do in restoring the country to normality after a six-month political crisis that began when a Russia-friendly outsider, Călin Georgescu, unexpectedly won the first round of November’s presidential elections. The Constitutional Court canceled the ballot after reports of Russian interference on TikTok and campaign funding violations.
The decision divided Romanians with some praising it as a bold move and others criticizing what they said was a democratically shaky step, asserting that Russian meddling had not been proved. Nationalists called it a coup d’etat against democracy and the will of the Romanian people. Georgescu was subsequently indicted on six counts in March for undermining the constitution and support for sympathizers of the Iron Guard, a pre-World War II fascist and antisemitic movement, as well as political party and campaign finance violations.
The flames of the political crisis were fanned beyond Romania’s borders when the December annulment, two days before the scheduled runoff, was criticized by US Vice President JD Vance, Elon Musk, and nationalist figures and movements in Europe, as well as the Kremlin. Vance argued, as he has regarding Germany, that European elections must be free from state interference.
Simion tapped into anger and frustration with the political mainstream parties to win 41% in the May 4 first round, using an effective, sophisticated, and grievance-laden social media campaign.
Simion promised to appoint Georgescu prime minister if he won, to cut half a million public sector jobs, and to make the US Romania’s main foreign partner. His popularity resulted in the weakening of the leu and unsettled foreign investors.
Dan must now appoint a new prime minister. He has said he wants to appoint the interim President, Ilie Bolojan. Bolojan took over after President Klaus Iohannis was forced to resign in February and has been one of the most popular politicians during the political crisis.
Dan said on May 18 he would open negotiations with all four pro-EU parties in the Romanian parliament, from the center-left to the center-right, in the hope of convincing them all to join a unity government.
Alison Mutler is a British journalist who has been working in Romania for almost 35 years. She was the Associated Press bureau chief for 25 years and was part of a team that covered the Romanian revolution for the British TV channel ITN. For the past five years, she has worked for the Romanian-English website Universul.net and has been its director for the past three years.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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