Europe’s NATO members imported more than 60% of their weaponry from the US between 2020 and 2024. As with the continent’s reliance on Russian oil before 2022, over-dependency on a single supplier is making the continent vulnerable to political decisions taken elsewhere.
It’s extraordinary that this question is being asked, but this is a sign of just how deep is the newly created rift between the US and its allies. Donald Trump’s decision to halt, then reinstate, intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine has shaken governments far beyond the Kyiv administration.
Take the F-35 combat aircraft made by Lockheed Martin. A US-dominated program to produce a fifth generation aircraft, it relies heavily on foreign involvement — as much as 30% of the fully equipped jet is estimated to be British for example. But the F-35 is highly dependent on its US-controlled computer systems, so while talk of a disabling so-called kill switch seems overblown, it would degrade over time without coding updates and US maintenance.
That is making buyers nervous, with both Canada and Portugal suggesting they may spurn the plane or reduce orders.
As of July, there were orders in place to take the total number of F-35 Lightning II aircraft in European forces to more than 550. While it is true these jets will provide unmatched combat, intelligence, and other capabilities, the new owners lack complete control.
“This ally of ours, which for decades has always been predictable, may bring limitations in use, maintenance, components, everything that has to do with ensuring the aircraft will be operational,” Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo said in an interview with Publico. “We cannot be oblivious to the geopolitical environment . . . we have to know that in all circumstances these allies will be on our side.”
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney has ordered a review of plans to buy a total of 88 of the F-35s. Michael Byers, co-director of the University of British Columbia’s Outer Space Institute, argued that, because of the ability to degrade the plane’s technology, the US could easily achieve air superiority over Canada if President Donald Trump ever made a direct threat to the country’s sovereignty.
Lawmakers in the UK have also raised concerns that its fleet of F-35’s could be grounded by the US. Defense minister Luke Pollard responded on March 10 saying that “the UK maintains the freedom of action to operate the F-35 Lightning at a time and place of our choosing,” without giving further details.
The truth is that defense suppliers have a range of ways to degrade if not ground products they have sold. Iran bought aircraft from the US and Soviet Union in the 1970s, which it still operates. But their effectiveness can be judged from October’s Israeli attacks when its (F-35) aircraft were able to attack a range of Iranian sites, including a key nuclear weapons facility, without losing a single plane.
Updates to capabilities are critical, as with the F-16 aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies but reliant on US electronic warfare kit that is key to evading Russian air defenses.
But the dependency is not just one-way. Europe also has leverage. As mentioned, the F-35 is reliant on production in at least 10 other countries. The importance of international partners was evident during the Covid-19 pandemic when global production was slowed by virus-related restrictions on workers in Italy and Japan.
The role of foreign suppliers was also highlighted when millions of dollars were spent moving production away from facilities in Turkey after it was expelled from the program for buying a Russian S-400 missile system in 2019.
There is a lesson here about transatlantic trust; it took decades to build and has taken weeks to damage. This is a sad situation for nations that have stood together for the 75 years of the NATO alliance.
It does harm both ways. Europe needs to rearm and — spurred by administration statements — has managed to find more than $1 trillion (probably at least $1.5 trillion given Germany’s lifting of its spending cap and inevitable an future increase from the UK) in the early months of this year.
In the normal course of events, large contracts would be available for top-of-the-line US equipment like airborne early warning aircraft, electronic listening planes, combat aircraft, advanced rocket systems, and air defense missiles. It could have been a bonanza not only for European defense majors (whose shares have been soaring) but for US companies too.
That would help to repay the enormous contribution the US has made to European defense in the last eight decades and underline that the US and Europe are intimately linked in trade and many other areas.
It won’t be easy to restore trust but at the same time, it is important to remember the Transatlantic alliance has survived numerous crises — including France’s withdrawal from NATO military command in 1963, and the refusal of some European counties to participate in US military operations in Iraq, Libya and Syria in the early 21st century.
Current events might serve as an opportunity for the alliance to evolve into a more balanced format, with equally potent European and US forces.
Andrii Vdovychenko is an emerging expert in international security. He is pursuing a Master’s in International Security and Development and holds a Bachelor’s from Jagiellonian University. His research focuses on emerging technologies and strategic studies.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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