The totalitarian axis is more fragile than it looks. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad gets asylum in Moscow, at least for now, but where will Russia’s president escape to when his circle of consigliere and goombahs decide that the Special Military Operation was in fact a bad idea?
The Kremlin’s capo del capi has bribed Moscow’s lesser mobsters to ensure their support, but they may choose to boot him off the sinking ship as the war runs out of troops and economic steam. Both sides in the Ukrainian war are exhausted, but Kyiv is backed by other nations whose combined GDP is over 10 times larger than Russia’s. US and Ukrainian war technology, boosted by AI, is neutralizing many of Russia’s drones and missiles, and those furnished by Iran and North Korea. And as Assad’s downfall shows, weakness hides behind a façade of dictatorial strength.
Putin could retreat to some remote region of the world’s largest country, but his safety is not assured in a land where thousands of families resent the loss of 700,000 sons or fathers mangled or disabled in the meat grinder assaults against Ukraine. Putin’s palaces on the Black Sea and near Moscow are probably too close to potential killers (not least Ukraine’s highly effective assassins) to provide a tranquil retreat.
The capo del capi might ask his barone in Minsk for a quiet nest in Belarus, but the country is dangerously close to Poland as well as Ukraine. For that matter, strong dissent boils just below the surface and could displace Putin’s putative comrade President Aliaksandr Lukashenka.
Putin could also look for respite in Tehran, but Iran’s future is also looking dicey. The sudden Syrian revolution has been a disaster for Tehran, but it’s only the latest in a long list. Iran’s clients in Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen have all suffered serious losses. Many Iranians, long hostile to ayatollah rule, may feel energized by the defeat of the Syrian’ dictatorship. The Iranians I have met traveling much of the country are sensitive human beings, surely ashamed of their government’s aid in slaughtering Ukrainians. They would not welcome the lead butcher, Vladimir Vladimirovich.
Putin could conceivably seek refuge in China, where his close or closest friend is also a capo del capi. But it would be embarrassing for Moscow to turn to the senior partner in the joint Sino-Russian campaign against US imperialism. Besides, Xi Jinping might not want him. Beijing does not seek another source of conflict with the Trump White House.
Is India a possibility? New Delhi is delighted to acquire huge volumes of Russian oil at bargain prices, but it still tries to avoid taking sides with Moscow or Washington. Prime Minister Modi is unlikely to put out a welcome mat for a leader wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC.)
Another dear Putin friend is Kim Jong Un. He cares nothing about international opinion and would not be chagrined to have Putin as a guest. The presence of the former Russian president could even be presented to the North Korean public as another victory for the Kim regime. For Putin, however, this would be a humiliation in a land most Russians see as more despotic and backward than their own, and whose mercurial ruler might anyway change his mind.
Far away and a bit too close to Guantanamo, Cuba might be a good retirement venue. An outdoor type who enjoys fishing and splashing in the waves, Putin could bring with him the keys to many accounts probably storing multiple billions of dollars. The Cuban military and security forces have protected the leadership against dozens of Yanqui conspiracies for 65 years, Surely, they could defend Putin and his entourage?
It’s very clearly a better option than Belarus, Iran, or North Korea. And if the old friendship with “the Donald” returns, a visit to Mar-a-Lado might someday be on the cards.
Walter Clemens is Associate, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University, and Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science, Boston University. He wrote Blood Debts: What Putin and Xi Owe Their Victims (2023).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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