In the Baltic states, as in Ukraine, Donald Trump’s November 5 election victory was marked by a deep breath followed by a focus on the positive.
Baltic politicians (past and present) started to note the potential benefits. Former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid, in a recent interview with ERR, seemed to take the increasingly popular tack that the Biden administration has been milquetoast during the four years it has been in power, while also expressing cautious optimism.
“The Biden administration has been very modest and careful,” she told the state media outlet. “I would remain cautiously optimistic, with the caveat that you can never predict what Trump is going to do, based on the past.”
The more general feeling among the Estonian population was that a Harris win was preferable, said local journalist Vilja Kiisler. But a sense of pragmatism still prevails. “Estonian politicians have always been aware that Estonia has to be able communicate and cooperate with Trump’s administration, and they have prepared for it. Not happy, but not discouraged either.”
Latvian Foreign Minister Braiba Braže has stuck to a similar line, stating that “cooperation with the Trump administration will be close and strong,” simultaneously noting the necessity for Latvia to continue investing in its own security and defense. On November 11, Latvia’s Ministry of Defense began negotiations to purchase ASCOD infantry fighting vehicles as part of a large rise in defense spending that will see the country reach 3% of GDP by 2027, 50% greater than the NATO minimum.
“We in Latvia believe that Trump and his administration will continue to regard the Transatlantic relationship as a very valuable asset for US,” said Olevs Nikers, President of the Baltic Security Foundation. However, the initial news was “shocking” and the US potentially shifting its focus away from the region did feel “worrisome.”
There is continuity too, the heightened focus on defense is part of a broader trend across the region towards amping up arms production, which preceded the US election. In June, Lithuania signed an investment agreement worth nearly $200m with Rheinmetall, the German arms company, for an ammunition plant and has been in talks with the Italian arms manufacturer Leonardo about expanding to Lithuania.
The Rail Baltica project too is progressing, albeit slowly – the high speed line is intended to link Tallinn to the Netherlands via Vilnius and would be critical for NATO reinforcement.
Like the Baltic states, Northern and Eastern Europe also remain strong. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has arranged meetings to discuss future security with Nordic and Baltic leaders in response to Trump’s election win, as well as with French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO chief Mark Rutte, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Now it seems these countries are prioritizing the strengthening of ties and cooperation, especially in the face of perceived German political weakness and a shyness in its Russia policy. As CEPA fellow Jessica Berlin tweeted: “For over a year behind the scenes, there has been quiet talk of the eventual need for a CEE-Baltic-Nordic-British coalition to defend Ukraine. Now it’s being said out loud.”
The peoples of the Baltic states remain those with the greatest grasp of the gravity of the Russian threat – well embodied in photographs from protests in Tbilisi over the weekend, to which parliamentarians including Lithuania’s Žygimantas Pavilionis, Estonia’s Marko Mihkelson, and Latvia’s Ināra Mūrniece travelled, as part of a broader “European Friends of Georgia” grouping in support of democracy in the country.
It is also the three Baltic states that, along with Poland, spend the highest percentage of GDP on defense. This has also been noted by members of Trump’s new team: it is western European nations, that National Security Adviser nominee Michael Waltz has previously criticized for not pulling their weight.
But Baltic citizens and leaders have a strong belief that the best way to improve their own security, and the security of Europe as a whole, is simply to help Ukraine defeat Russia. The alternative would result in a much higher security threat and enormous additional expenditure.
“We must keep working every day and for as long as it takes, with as much military, financial and humanitarian help as needed” for Ukraine, the EU’s chief diplomat and former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told the European Parliament on Tuesday.
Aliide Naylor is the author of ‘The Shadow in the East’ (Bloomsbury, 2020). She lived in Russia for several years and now reports from the Baltic states and Ukraine.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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