Even as NATO’s 75th anniversary summit was underway in Washington on July 10, with Georgia’s foreign minister in attendance, back home a part of the ruling party established a movement called United Neutral Georgia.
Among the new organization’s leaders is former Chief of the General Staff of the Georgian Armed Forces (2005-2006) Levan Nikoleishvili, a colonel educated at the United States Army Command and General Staff College and NATO Defense College.
Nikoleishvili and his associates plan to expand their ranks and establish a political party. This movement will act as another radical, pro-Russian wing of the ruling Georgian Dream, the goal of which will be anti-NATO propaganda and spreading the idea of neutrality. The new organization faces a tough task — alliance membership is supported by almost 80% of the population.
The topic of Georgia’s possible neutrality as an alternative to NATO membership is a recurring theme and has repeatedly surfaced from pro-Russian groups. In 2008, when Georgia had a pro-Western government, immediately after a plebiscite on the topic of accession to NATO (in which 77% of the population voted for accession), one pro-Russian politician unsuccessfully initiated a referendum on the country’s neutrality.
Under Georgian Dream rule, the issue surfaced immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While the party officially denies such intentions — it is, after all, a candidate member — it strongly encourages supporters of neutrality.
Georgian Dream’s path from purported support for alliance membership to Western-skeptical positions supported by the Kremlin has accelerated since the party’s billionaire founder and honorary chairman Bidzina Ivanishvili returned to a more active role at the end of last year. He blames a “global party of war which has a decisive influence on NATO and the EU” for Russia’s conflict with Georgia in 2008, and says scheming foreigners wish to manipulate the country for their own benefit.
This openly anti-Western approach is behind the passage of the so-called Russia law, which aims to greatly increase government scrutiny of foreign-funded charities advocating for human rights and other themes.
This has deeply alienated the European Union (EU) and led to the effective freezing of Georgia’s membership bid. It has also angered the US. It’s notable that the Washington NATO summit communique failed to mention Georgian membership, an omission few consider accidental.
In 2017, Georgian Dream inserted a constitutional article on joining NATO and the EU, mainly because it seemed at the time as a crowd-pleasing decision. But there are unmistakable signs that it now regrets this United Neutral Georgia states in its program manifesto published on July 10 that the article is unacceptable. Four days later, a businessman closely affiliated with Georgian Dream, Irakli Rukhadze, who owns the main pro-government television channel Imedi TV, said in an interview that the existence of such an article was stupid and sacralizes the topic of joining the EU and NATO.
It seems likely that a policy promoting neutrality (and therefore renunciation of NATO ambitions) is what the ruling elite plans.
But to do this, Georgian Dream must win parliamentary elections and obtain a constitutional majority.
The pro-government media regularly sneer about the “US and NATO’s flight from Afghanistan,” as well as about the introduction of “quotas for transgender people” in the armies of US and NATO countries. This targeted propaganda serves to undermine the alliance’s image in the eyes of the Georgian population.
Chairman of the Georgian Parliament, Shalva Papushvili, downplayed the contribution of NATO in aiding Georgia’s security and sought to discredit it as a reliable ally, saying in July: “After the war of 2008, for six years, all NATO member states refused to sell weapons to the defense forces of the war-torn country.”
In fact, from 2008-2024, the EU spent more than €354m ($387m) on the Georgian security sector, and the US more than $2bn from 2000-2022 to arm, equip, and train military personnel.
Whatever the government and its allies say, the population remains very much pro-alliance, perhaps noting that Russia continues to illegally occupy 20% of the national territory. Almost three-quarters of Georgians say the Kremlin repeatedly commits hostile acts against their country.
That may help explain why supporters of Georgia’s neutrality use the topic of territorial integrity as their main argument.
They claim that Georgia might enter NATO and leave the occupied territories in Russian hands, knowing that any such move would face stiff public resistance. A 2021 opinion poll showed the only security issue more important than alliance membership was winning back the lost lands.
To the question, “If you have to choose between, on the one hand, the return of the territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and on the other hand, membership in NATO and the EU, what will you choose?” 78% of respondents answered in favor of territorial integrity.
It is a false choice unless the Kremlin suddenly decides to abandon occupied land in return for a Georgian pledge never to join a Western club. But any democratic country would face a hard fight to bind future governments, regardless of the popular will.
Elections are due in October. The stakes could not be higher.
Dr. Beka Chedia is a researcher and professor of political science from Tbilisi, Georgia. He is a Tbilisi-based country expert, political analyst, and contributor to several leading think tanks and research centers in Europe and the US.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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