Russia’s ongoing aggression, aided by the failure of the US Congress to pass a $60.1bn weapons and aid package since October, has emboldened Russian forces, leaving Ukrainians rationing ammunition, and resulting in the loss of territory and strategic towns and villages.
And yet despite the formidable challenges ahead, Ukraine is finally seeing signs that NATO allies are beginning to grasp what’s at stake and to act.
Since Russia’s capture of Avdiivka on February 17, Russian forces have pushed forward relentlessly, extending their reach westward toward the outskirts of Orlivka and Berdychi. This has put pressure on Ukrainians holding the line, with warnings that Russia may break through the front as early as the summer, although for now reinforcements are holding the line.
There is a sense of delight in Russia, as the long-predicted Western divisions emerge and its so-called meat-grinder tactics bring slow advances.
Take Dmitry Medvedev’s recent declarations. Now reinvented as an arch-hawk, the former president and prime minister stood before a map depicting Russia’s consumption of Ukraine, where he proclaimed: “One of Ukraine’s former leaders said at some point that Ukraine is not Russia. That concept needs to disappear forever. Ukraine is definitely Russia.”
Speaking over applause from the audience, he added, “Historic parts of the country need to come home.”
Europe at least understands what that means, both for Ukraine (its erasure) and for the continent — a precedent for further Russian aggression.
Like other Central and East European nations, the Czech Republic has a vivid collective memory of the Russian invasion and occupation. Its government and President Petr Pavel, a leader in the mold of Václav Havel, successfully spearheaded a military aid initiative in which its officials scoured the world for desperately needed 155mm and 122mm artillery ammunition. It then helped cobble together 18 Western nations to pay for the 800,000 shells (Ukraine’s consumption last winter was around 90,000 shells monthly.)
Moreover, the United Kingdom’s recent announcement it was allocating £325m ($416m) to purchase over 10,000 cutting-edge drones for Ukraine marks a significant boost. This comes on the heels of President Zelenskyy’s recent decree establishing a separate branch of Ukraine’s Armed Forces dedicated to drones, and indicates the continuing determination to work on cutting-edge military applications and homegrown defense capabilities.
In addition to military aid, Ukraine has forged bilateral security agreements with the UK, France, Germany, Greece, Canada, Italy, and several other countries, signaling a strengthening of diplomatic ties and a mutual commitment to security cooperation. Many involve significant financial support.
Ukraine’s successes in the Black Sea are now well-documented — the Russian navy has been scattered and sunk (as the March 5 sinking of the missile corvette Sergey Kotov again demonstrated.) That’s allowed the reopening of trade routes, with shipments currently close to pre-war levels.
There has also been positive news as Western states slowly (as ever) move toward the seizure of frozen Russian assets. Switzerland has approved measures allowing such funds to be redirected for Ukraine’s reconstruction and the European Union (EU), which has approved a four-year $54bn aid package for the Zelenskyy government, is now working to redirect more than $3bn in interest payments on Russian assets to Kyiv.
There is progress too on the legal front, when on March 5 the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for two high-ranking Russian officers, the head of the air force’s long-range aviation, Lt. Gen. Sergei Ivanovich Kobylash and Admiral Viktor Nikolayevich Sokolov, former commander of the Black Sea Fleet. Warrants for Vladimir Putin and children’s ombudsman Maria Lvova-Belova remain; they are charged with war crimes related to the mass abduction of Ukrainian children.
But the key issue remains the $60.1bn military aid package for Ukraine that remains marooned in the House of Representatives, as the Speaker of the House continues to delay a floor vote. While Europe is spending heavily to support civilian needs and to raise military production, it remains extremely reliant on US defense output.
William Burns, CIA Director, who had just returned from Ukraine told Congress on March 11 that the stakes could not be higher. “Without supplemental assistance in 2024, you’re going to see more Avdiivkas,” he said of the lost battle for the Ukrainian town. “And that, it seems to me, would be a massive and historic mistake for the United States.”
Ukraine has certainly had some good news this year, but it’s not yet good enough.
Olga Lautman is a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), the host of the Kremlin File podcast, and an analyst/researcher focusing on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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