After a series of explosions on railways in the occupied territories and on the Kerch bridge, the Kremlin is desperate to improve its logistics. Since the summer, commanders have been talking about a range of projects, including a rail route to connect Russian Rostov with Crimea through the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts.
But their progress is shrouded in a fog of wartime propaganda.
In September, Yury Guskov, the Russian-appointed Minister of Economic Development for the occupied Zaporizhzhia Region, said the new branch line, which was still being designed, would connect Melitopol junction and Berdiansk with the railway to Rostov.
Then two months later, Yevgeny Balitsky, the Russian-appointed governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, said construction had already begun on the Donetsk side. “This project has already started,” he said. “Yakimivka, close to Melitopol, is the railway junction from which construction will begin.”
The Russian occupiers not only wanted to use the new railway to re-supply their forces but also to reduce dependence on railway connections to mainland Russia via the Kerch Bridge.
“The issue of exporting grain to the continent, exporting iron ore, scrap, coal, and many elements that we need to connect with the mainland today are being resolved,” Balitsky claimed. “It’s not only a long way to travel across the Crimean Bridge, but even today the bridge is an object of increased danger.”
Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, told CEPA that Russia building a new railway along the Azov Sea would be a very bad sign. “If they can set up this route, it will be extremely difficult to destroy it later,” he said. “Today it is the Crimean Bridge and that’s all, but then there would be another railway which would significantly improve their logistics.”
Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol and exiled resident of the city, said it would take Russia years to realize the project. He is more concerned about another, less publicized, railway line, and in September posted pictures of work on a bridge across the Kalmius River, near the village of Granitne.
The construction work is part of a project to restore the pre-2014 rail connection between Mariupol and the Russian regions, Andriushchenko said. If completed, it would directly connect the existing Mariupol-Aslanove-Kalchik-Volnovakha railway to Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don.
“Seventy percent of what we could see was renewing the track,” he said in an interview. “They are building no more than 30%, but very large resources are involved. Workers are brought in and it is costing big money.”
But in September, the occupiers froze the project.
“The hostilities are close, and they are probably afraid to build,” he said. “If they had carried on, then this year we would have seen the first trains to Mariupol. There are 5-10 kilometers left to build, which is nothing. And because they are restoring what was there before, it’s much easier.”
Nico Lange, Senior Fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at CEPA, said successful action by the Ukrainian Armed Forces would keep Russian engineers away from construction work close to the frontline, cutting their opportunities to improve infrastructure.
“For any of these projects to become reality Russia would either need a ceasefire or to broaden the coastal strip,” he said. “It would be a mistake to allow for a ceasefire when Russia would only use it to strengthen its logistical backbone. A ceasefire would do to the south what 2014 did to Crimea. Look at the military infrastructure and logistics they built during those years.”
Around 85% of logistics for the Russian front in Southern Ukraine run via Crimea, Lange said, and because routes via Crimea are vulnerable and put the peninsula itself at risk, the Russians urgently need alternatives.
Another project the occupiers are busy with is the port of Mariupol, and at the end of October, a Russian vessel entered the facility for the first time.
There are at least three cargo bulk carriers working from the port, according to Andriushchenko, but they are being hidden to avoid sanctions. All numbers, names, and GPS systems are turned off when the ships enter, and they carry material for use by the military, he said.
“The port can receive large vessels, it can unload and load them. This means they can bring anything,” Andriushchenko said. “If a civilian ship brings in concrete structures, it unloads these allegedly civilian concrete structures, then they are used for building fortifications along the front line.”
Both Andriushchenko and Fedorov, who are exiled from their homes, agree it is vital to stop the Russians from building any infrastructure that would improve their logistics and, as a result, their ability to fight the war.
“If I had enough weapons, I would just destroy all the Russian logistics, because they have no non-military logistics,” Andriushchenko said. “They are even now carrying tanks in Mariupol on civilian trucks, they are not ashamed of it at all.”
Russia is using the West’s period of uncertainty and hesitation to build new railways and roads, and using civilian ships for military purposes. Moscow feels impunity, and if it is allowed to continue, it will be harder to defeat.
Elina Beketova is a Democracy Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), focusing on the occupied territories of Ukraine. She worked as a journalist, editor, and TV anchor for various news stations in Kharkiv and Kyiv, and currently contributes to the translator’s team of Ukrainska Pravda, Ukraine’s biggest online newspaper.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
