Elena Davlikanova
Hello, I’m Elena Davlikanova, a Democracy Fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis. And welcome to Understanding Ukraine, a series of conversations with Ukrainian opinion leaders, experts, and politicians on a variety of topics that help to better understand Ukraine, its ongoing war against Russia, the future of the Ukrainian people, and Ukraine’s relationships with partners and allies. And today I have the honor to have this conversation with Olga Aivazovska, Head of the Board of Civil Network OPORA. Olga, thank you very much for coming today.
Olga Aivazovska
Thank you for inviting me.
Elena Davlikanova
Well, in one of your interviews, you said that elections are not about just an election day it is about the whole process, about very honest and open talk within society itself. In your opinion, is it possible to organize elections under fire? And will or should Ukraine hold elections next year, if the war continues?
Olga Aivazovska
Of course, if the war will continue, we have so many challenges, but it’s not just about organization of the process. It’s about political participation. All groups of Ukrainians who want to participate, and this is about political competition. If we don’t have any possibility to open the field for political competition because of martial law; because of mobilization of Ukrainian citizens: men and women to be a part of army and defendant system; because of so many refugees abroad, which may have right to vote, but I can’t understand how they will participate as political actors in the process. And if we will not have answers to the question about freedoms, about participation, about political competition inside and outside the country, this process will not be free and fair. This process will not be free, first of all, and this is a conversation between actors and experts on how to organize the process, not just open the polling station, and print out the ballots, but how to protect political rights to compete, and how to open space for a big discussion about the future of Ukraine after the end of the war. But those groups who are the real [ones] actively defending Ukraine and society now, they have another priority. It’s not about the political career of these people. It’s about first priority to help Ukraine to survive, now, to defend the territories, but first of all the people on occupied territories, and to finish the war. But according to Ukrainian and our partners’ scenarios, not according to a Russian scenario. And if the war, this stage of the war, will end next year. Of course, Ukraine has to organize elections as soon as it’s possible after that. But now we as experts, civil society, and our international partners have to focus on how to prepare a landscape for open space for political competition and good organization of postwar elections, as soon as it will be possible. And this is about legislation. This is about political advertising abroad. This is about responsibility of organization of the process on the hosting countries, and we need to open space for discussions with our partners already about all of these issues.
Elena Davlikanova
You already started this topic so let’s outline for our partners, what kinds of challenges Ukraine is facing when it comes to organization of elections in the future, and what steps does it have to take right now to hold the election when the right time comes?
Olga Aivazovska
So the first challenge, of course, is about security, physical infrastructure, when we’re speaking about state not just about people, and political. Because we will be under the Russian influence for many years after the end of the battle. We have to understand that Russians have to leave Ukraine, not just physically as soldiers, but as a group of influence, because Ukraine is an independent state. But soft power will give them a chance to stay in Ukraine even after the end of the war. And we need to think about that, too. Security is about security guarantees. Yeah, we may provide any statements, but if Ukraine will not be under the security guarantees of the broader alliance of our partners, and I’m speaking about EU, I’m speaking about potential membership of Ukraine in NATO. Russia can provide one-day missile attack against Ukrainian cities. And if we will have Election Day on that day, the level of turnout will be less than 10% for sure. We tried to organize an event a few weeks ago in Sumy, not far from the border with Russia, and we had five alarms during one day. People couldn’t participate on voting process without understanding what will happen next minute. Because those who are living close to the border, they don’t have enough time to find shelters. Ballistic rocket attacks usually happened before the alarm system [works] because it’s too close to the borders. So if Russia will provide the insecurity through these potential massive attacks against Ukraine, it will break everything. So that’s why it has to be built in the anti air defense system from Ukrainian side to be ready, even if Russia will use this source.
Another question is about participation. And we need to provide solutions now, on the expertise level, then, on practical and implementation level. We have 20% of refugees abroad; 20% of Ukrainian society are living abroad now. And more than 80% in between this audience has electoral rights. So it’s like people who have to participate. We have 1 million soldiers, and many of them are serving now. If the war will go any longer, these people will have only one priority: to serve the security of its own society and defend the territories. But participation, as I mentioned already, many times, it’s not just about voting. Russia has voting. Belarus had voting. Does that mean that Belarus and Russia are democracies? Of course not. So I want to understand or provide expertise, or find the right solutions with the partners on how to help people abroad to be candidates. Because we need to understand that if 20% of society are living abroad, they have to have representation in parliament. The same about soldiers; if we will provide solutions for voting; post voting, electronic voting, or we had discussions already about voting with use of drones for providing help to soldiers to realize their constitutional right to vote. So many creative tools may be used. But is it possible to provide a solution for military elite or guys which have spending their lives for building security for Ukraine to be candidates? I’m not sure because now they have to serve for security needs of Ukraine.
This question is about education; campaigning; media. So campaigning is very important for having free and fair elections. And as we all know, during martial law periods, there is a censorship, this is a reality. So nobody can publish everything, because it may produce insecure background for society. The political discussions has to be under the so-called understanding that you can share very sensitive, sometimes secret information. If MPs will discuss the counter-offensive attack plan for example, this can be under the discussion and debates now. Or if we will have elections during hot stage of the war, politicians may provide their expertise about why Kherson, God bless, was occupied so soon. And this type of discussion is not in time when we are speaking about time during the hot stage of the war. But political discussion, debates, and advertising sometimes are about cyber tools. For example, we can’t use our social media, Facebook, Meta, and others for providing even social political advertising information for our refugees abroad, because the EU has very strong regulation about social media. And how to have campaigning for this 20% of the audience, if there is no access? For sure, it’s about institutionalized solutions like; to help bilateral agreements between Ukraine and hosting countries or between Ukraine and the EU about flexibility of some of the rules for Ukrainian political process. The same about internal landscape, because candidates during martial law period will not have flexibility to visit cities, communities, to speak with people; they can’t organize events, manifestations, or meetings with a big number of people, because all of these people will be under the potential attack of Russia. So, and legislation, this is very questionable thing, because we can’t use an electoral court for organizing post war or during war time period elections, according to regular norms.
Elena Davlikanova
The EU already started talking about what Ukraine should do or could do with our allies to help Ukraine organize elections. So what help are we aspiring [to see] from Ukraine’s allies in all these preparations? And how do you see the future of Ukraine altogether?
Olga Aivazovska
So preparation was already started. And OPORA, my colleagues, expert groups, and our international partners play a very active role in this process. I have to mention NDI, IFES, IRI and other American organizations which are providing expertise for preparation post-war election. The same we’re trying to do from the civil society side of Ukrainian civil society groups. And we have a strong partnership with the EU and European organizations and institutions. But let’s speak honestly, that if you don’t know what will happen next month, you can’t find the right solution for everything. First stage is to develop scenarios. So you have to find solutions for each of the scenarios; if war will go on for years, but the hot stage of the war will expire, and you have new, like we had between 2014 and 2022. [Then] of course, Ukraine has a possibility to organize elections. If the hot stage of the war will go on for years and years, I’m not sure. Because the UK during the Second World War had the same parliament for 10 years, and it was political compromises between authorities and opposition. We have the same now in Ukraine. But technically, we are speaking each day now with the partners on how to organize, so called political advertising campaigns; how to prepare polling stations abroad and inside Ukraine if something will happen, according to security issues; how to develop legislation; how to aver people how to participate; and so on and so forth. This process was already started a year ago. But it doesn’t mean that we are ready now to start the process in December, because according to the constitution without martial law, we have to start presidential elections 21st of December. So it’s very close to us.
Elena Davlikanova
Olga, thank you very, very much for all these detailsed descriptions of all the challenges that Ukraine is facing right now. And I hope that together in cooperation with our allies, we will be able to overcome all of them and Ukraine will continue its democratic path. And thank you very much for watching this episode of Understanding Ukraine. If you’re interested in our work, please visit see CEPA.org.
