Kurt Volker
Hello, my name is Kurt Volker. I’m a Distinguished Fellow here at the Center for European Policy Analysis and this is State of the Alliance, where we bring together thought leaders from Europe and North America to talk about some of the most important challenges facing the transatlantic community. I’m honored today to be here with the ambassador of Finland to the United States, His Excellency, Mikko Hautala, and I am dying to hear his thoughts on how are things going with the transatlantic community? And how has the war in Ukraine affected all of this going forward? So Ambassador, thank you for coming. I’d like to just start out with your overall assessment, we are now one year into Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine, and this was an all out invasion. How do you assess how it’s going on the ground? How it’s going for Ukrainians and the Russians? And how has the Western community responded?

Mikko Hautala
Well, good. First of all, great to see you again. And thanks for inviting me. It’s been a traumatic year, obviously, and also for my nation, because that’s one of the consequences of this war was the time we decided to apply for NATO. So it has caused a lot of changes also in the northern Europe. But obviously, for Ukraine, I think the main result is a major setback for Mr. Putin, because his plans to quickly kind of far run over Ukrainian armed forces and occupy the country where basically didn’t happen. So I think we’ve been successful in countering the the attack in the first round. But I’m increasingly getting a sense that we should not underestimate the Russian military power, we have to take it, continue to take it seriously. And I think we have to do some rethinking for the next months and perhaps years to come. Because I don’t I don’t expect that this one

Kurt Volker
What would that rethinking look like? More types of weapons? Vaster quantities? What do you have in mind?

Mikko Hautala
I think we have both in mind, because we obviously see that vaster quantities is something that must be there, because, frankly, Finland has now given more military aid per capita than, for example, the US. Yes, so other Europeans are doing their share, including my country. But at the end of the day, and we actually have now 18 month plan to do that support. But still, we need to get our defense industry really up and running in order to make sure that we have something that we can replace with the weapons we give to Ukraine.

Kurt Volker
Do you think Putin will ever stop this war? Do you think they’ll ever back down?

Mikko Hautala
I think he will not stop until he sees a either the result or situation which is kind of convincing to him that he doesn’t have an option of continuing. Or he will see a kind of alliance or kind of a coalition of forces. What I mean by this is Ukrainian Armed Forces plus the support, material support they get unless he sees a kind of a sort of a collection of forces and factors that make the war look unwinnable to him. I don’t think he sees it like that at the moment.

Kurt Volker
And how are people in Russia doing? Are they looking at this war saying we’re gonna win this, we’re doing great, or are they getting concerned?

Mikko Hautala
I think most of the Russians are pretty okay with the conflict as such, most of the Russians have not really felt the impact in their everyday life. I think it’s a and even those Russians who were initially quite shocked and and kind of said that this is, this is not the right thing to do, I think they have now decided to go along. So I think we are facing a fairly united country in that sense. And I never believed in any kind of a major kind of uprising or reaction against the war. And unfortunately, I was right.

Kurt Volker
Right. And of course, you’re one of the people in Washington who knows Russia the best, having served over eight years, I guess, as the number two in the embassy and then the ambassador. Do you see fractures within the leadership in Russia? We hear about Prigozhin and Kadyrov and the challenges to Shoigu, do you put any faith in that?

Mikko Hautala
short answer is no. Ah, obviously, in these kinds of situations, there are all kinds of differences and and we tend to get sort of, some of us tend to get too excited about it. We don’t see any real fracture within the elites. And I think it is a kind of a it’s a kind of an empty road or sort of, kind of not the right road to pursue because it leads us to think that let’s wait until something bad happens. If that happens inside Russia, that automatically solves the problem. I don’t think this will.

Kurt Volker
Yeah, I understand. Okay. Well, Finland made some of its own decisions over the course of the past year, deciding after being a neutral country since World War 2, to seek to join NATO and winning the support of NATO with all the two parliaments having ratified. What went into that Finnish decision? What what caused you to do that now?

Mikko Hautala
I think the main reason was at the time, we basically saw Russia that started outright the full war against Russian, Ukrainian. So I think we felt that the situation had changed quite dramatically, that was one reason. Second reason, I think it felt for us quite logical to make the final step because we have been very close to NATO for roughly 30 years, we started to fly F-18s like 1992, we decided to buy them. So we’ve been integrating with NATO with US for quite some time. So I think the final step, I mean, was logical, natural. And actually, it was quite short. And also the way that how, for example, the US Senate did ratify the the treaty, I think it simply shows that our capabilities were understood, and also respected. That’s why we got the so quick support.

Kurt Volker
Do you think Ukraine will end up in NATO?

Mikko Hautala
It’s very early to say. We, of course, see that they they have given the promise already in Bucharest. Like, how many years 16 years ago, 15 years ago. So it’s been a long time. I think, and obviously Finland not being a member to NATO, we don’t have a position on the issue. I think we have a position so far on where we should be. But I will say so that if this war will be will become a sort of a result, if there’s going to be a result which will somehow protect the European security order. Somehow the Ukrainians that the security needs must be somehow covered.

Kurt Volker
I like to tell people that at the end of this war, Ukraine is going to have the largest, the best trained and the best equipped and most experienced military in Europe. So it’d be dangerous not to have them in NATO. Now, what about Sweden and Turkey? And you know, that hold up right now, where do you see that going?

Mikko Hautala
Well, we have seen that. We basically we haven’t really seen or heard any comments from Ankara since the earthquake. And obviously from our side, and I also take Swedish responses is the same that we now focus on helping them. So we are not calling and asking, how’s it going with our NATO application? I think we have to focus on helping helping Turkey just right now. I expect it’s our official expectation still that we hope to be members before Vilnius summit. And the sooner the better. I think in this security situation in Europe, I don’t think anyone in NATO really benefits from this kind of a bit of a great situation when we are almost there, but not fully legally.

Kurt Volker
Right now Turkey, of course, is raising issues about the PKK. And their ability to have harbor in Sweden. How do you assess all this?

Mikko Hautala
Well, obviously, I think my Swedish colleague would be the best person to respond to that. But I think if you look at Finland and Sweden, our situation with legislation or practices, how do we deal with terrorism are fully in line with the NATO practices, US, etc, etc. So I don’t see a difference here. Obviously, we are rule of law countries. We have strong legislation that protects the rights of the people and their expression, freedom of expression, and things like that. So I think that’s that’s continues to be the case. But in terms of how do we treat terrorism, and how do we deal with the problem? I don’t really see a problem.

Kurt Volker
It’s coming back to the military effort in Ukraine, you said that you think it’s going to need more types and systems and more quantity? What in particular, do you think Ukraine needs now that they’re not getting?

Mikko Hautala
I think, quite obviously, they need a lot of ammunition. And I frankly, do believe that what is kind of lacking on our side is a full sense of the industrial response. So like I said, it’s going to get difficult at one point to keep on giving unless you know when you can replace things you gave with something that you absolutely need. And also there’s a talk of backfilling that you have to kind of go back to the stockpiles that you have had before the conflict. I think it’s going to be different. I think we have to talk about backfilling because the the needed stockpiles, we are supposed to have even after the war are going to be higher than we perhaps thought before the conflict. So I think the industrial response not only in types of weapons, but also in in quantities. I think this is still in work in progress.

Kurt Volker
And anything in particular types of systems. I mean, a lot of people talk about longer range artillery or about aircraft. You mentioned that Finland has F-18s and is looking at new aircraft. What about in those categories?

Mikko Hautala
Well, I think it’s, it’s a discussion, as you know, with the Ukrainian state, say what they need, then we see what we can give. I obviously say that from the Finnish side, like I said, we’ve given quite a lot. Those weapons that we have, some of them we also manufacture. So we have a bit of a control ourselves, how much we have. But still, for us, it’s always quite a risky situation to give something because we have the long border, famous 830 miles, and we are responsible for that defense. So obviously, we always have to think really, not only twice, but three times before we make such a decision. But still we have given a lot.

Kurt Volker
We we’ve talked all on the security side now. But I want to bring up the economy as well. Ukraine has had a fall of GDP of over 30% In the past year, and the port of Odessa is not functioning as a normal seaport right now, it’s only limited to certain grain exports. What do you think should be done about the economy?

Mikko Hautala
Well, it’s clear Ukraine needs massive help for years to come. And I think this is something we have to just have to realize and get ready to give it because, frankly, I don’t see any choice here. Obviously, we have to also see where we can be helpful in terms of reconstruction and all that. But I think we are in the middle of the conflict yet. And the the kind of the structural issues of economy, how to really rebuild it. They have to wait until we have more clarity on the outcome of the war.

Kurt Volker
A couple of things that are coming up, the United Kingdom is going to be hosting the next Ukraine recovery conference. They are working on ideas about helping the insurance industry provide war insurance for an industry. And they’re also very focused on getting the private sector involved, because I think there’s going to be a limit to public funding, but investment will actually be what drives the economy. Yeah. Any thoughts on that?

Mikko Hautala
Well, I think security and military security especially and sort of investment, they are closely linked, because obviously if you have innovative practices in terms of insurance, that will help to an extent, but fundamentally, Ukraine needs to have a military security, that will give the investors confidence they need in investing. So I think there’s no kind of a way going around the military requirements. This is the fundamental.

Kurt Volker
One last word, then you’re here in Washington as the Minister of Finland, you’re meeting with officials, the administration and the Congress. What’s your advice to the United States?

Mikko Hautala
I will say that, let’s stay the course together. I think the Europeans and the US we need each other in this in this challenge. But I still want to strengthen the point. We need to have this industrial response. It’s not only the US, it’s also it concerns the Europe. We have to kind of come up with solutions because this is what we need, and not only for that conflict, but also for the years to come.

Kurt Volker
Right. Well, Ambassador Hautala thank you so much for your time. Thanks for being with us. And again, this is State of the Alliance here with the Center for European Policy Analysis. Thanks a lot.