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Comprehensive Report

War Without End: Deterring Russia’s Shadow War

By Sam Greene, David Kagan, Mathieu Boulègue & more…

Either Europe will continue allowing Russia’s shadow war to set the terms of escalation, or it will act now to prevent a larger war.

March 31, 2026
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Middle East
Photo: The Royal Navy's "999 Control Centre" at Portsdown Hill Technology Park, in Portsmouth, Hampshire, which helps deal with shipping attacks in the Red Sea . Picture date: Wednesday March 20, 2024. Credit: PA via Reuters
A Playbook to Clear the Strait of Hormuz
Russia
Photo: Russian political scientist Vyacheslav Nikonov (C) speaks to journalists after arriving at Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow July 12, 2013. Former intelligence agency contractor Edward Snowden asked to meet human rights groups at a Moscow airport on Friday to discuss what he called threatening and illegal behaviour by the United States to prevent him gaining asylum. Nikonov is one of the people Snowden asked to see. Credit: REUTERS/Grigory Dukor
Moscow’s Plasticine Man Comes to Washington
AI
Futuristic map, location points, blueprint, network with digital coordinates. Futuristic map, location points, blueprint, network with digital coordinates. Technology, altitude map, virtual reality, data. img_technology101s02_coordinates_map_location No Use Switzerland. No Use Germany. No Use Austria
The War of the Algorithm
Russia
Photo: Vendors count Russian ruble banknotes for tax at a market in Omsk, Russia October 29, 2021. Credit: REUTERS/Alexey Malgavko
Putin Demands More Efficient Military Corruption
Tech Policy
Credit: Sara Boyer/Center for European Policy Analysis.
Tech 2030

Latest analysis

Read the latest insights and commentary for CEPA's experts and contributors.
Hesitation Risks Escalation: Europe and Russia’s Shadow War
April 1, 2026 | By Sam Greene, David Kagan, Mathieu Boulègue & more…

The West has failed to stop Russia’s shadow war. CEPA assessed the steps needed to restore credible deterrence.
Europe’s Next Catastrophe Will Be No Accident
April 1, 2026 | By David Kagan

Russia’s shadow war in Europe is escalating. Allies need a new strategy before it’s too late.
Will the Caspian Region Be Drawn Into the Iran War?
April 1, 2026 | By Fuad Shahbazov

There are significant risks for the South Caucasus and Europe from the possible spread of the US-Israeli war with Iran.

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