Europe is under sustained Russian assault.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, acts of physical aggression against NATO’s European domain have surged beyond even Cold War levels. Sabotaging critical infrastructure, targeted arson and bombing attacks against civilian cities, disrupting transportation and communication, and carrying out assassination attempts on defense executives and Russian opposition leaders, Russia is waging a “shadow war” — a concerted and coordinated campaign of attacks designed to degrade and demotivate its adversary without provoking a military reprisal. Allies need to establish a new theory of deterrence to address this growing threat.
Today CEPA is announcing a major new initiative to provide a concrete strategy to defend, deny, and deter Russia’s shadow war. CEPA’s transatlantic task force, comprising national security professionals, forensic researchers, and investigative journalists. Among other parts of the project, the taskforce will convene meetings, organize strategy sessions, prepare papers, and deliver analysis to address the “shadow war” threat.
Defend, Deny, Deter
Countering Russia’s Shadow War
CEPA’s fellows have been among the most vocal analysts drawing attention to Russian shadow warfare over the past year, including:
- How to Counter Russia’s Hybrid Threats? First, Make Them a Priority – Moscow’s hybrid war on the West needs a robust and smart response, which means coordinated action from the European Union
- New Normal: Impunity– Failure to respond to Russian active measures is creating a dangerous world
- Wake Up NATO: It’s Sabotage – From onshore attacks against European rail, logistics, and energy facilities to disruption of subsea infrastructure, Putin’s sabotage most not go unchecked
- Russian Cyberwarfare: Unpacking the Kremlin’s Capabilities– In the unsettling landscape of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, cyber remains one of the most enduring mysteries.
Among CEPA’s leading experts are former Lithuanian Ambassador-at-Large for hybrid threats Eitvydas Bajarūnas, former Latvian Interior Minister Marija Golubeva, national security journalist Edward Lucas, physical and energy security investigator Benjamin Schmitt, and Russian intelligence experts Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, and others, including CEPA’s President and CEO, Alina Polyakova.
To learn more about this project, email Sarajane.rzegocki@cepa.org
