Ukraine’s Gas Transit Dilemma

At the end of 2024, Ukraine faces a difficult yet crucial decision as its gas transit agreement with Russia is set to expire. Should it end its historic role as Europe’s main supply route and potentially jeopardize its EU accession process by alienating some member states keen to continue buying Russian gas? Or should it bow to pressure and negotiate with its aggressor? The latter option currently appears improbable, but with Germany’s recent export gas levy causing tension with the EU, the future is uncertain. The decision taken by Ukraine in the upcoming months will not only define the extent to which Europe will be able to end its tumultuous energy relations with Russia but also provide a first indication on Kyiv’s interest in resuming talks with Moscow since it launched the full-scale war.