How have Russian cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns fallen short of pre-war expectations?
For more than a decade, many in the West have warned that Russia’s mysterious cyber capabilities could deliver a “cyber Pearl Harbor.” However, Russia's war in Ukraine has shattered the specter of Russia’s infamous cyber capabilities. To some, Russia’s cyberwar against Ukraine has been successful and still threatens the West. Others say it has delivered mixed results at best or was never an effective tool. How have Russian cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns fallen short of pre-war expectations? What are the underlying causes for the unmet assumptions?