In response to mass protests, the ruling Georgian Dream party has unleashed unprecedented violence against thousands of demonstrators, with more than 400 people detained and many subjected to brutal treatment by police and law enforcement.
The developments reflect a broader geopolitical trend as great power competition intensifies and America’s adversaries seek to weaken its alliances and turn traditional Western partners against it.
As the incoming Trump administration prepares to tackle a range of foreign policy priorities, the crisis in Georgia demands significant attention. The risk is that the moment will not be recognized, and the opportunity lost.
Having reached the zenith of its global influence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US has seen a decline in its standing over the past two decades as China rises and forms an alliance of growing significance with Russia and other disgruntled authoritarian states.
The incoming administration can alter this dynamic by defending its strategic interests and acting decisively to support its partners. Helping Georgia remain in the pro-Western camp could be a relatively easy victory — one that would send a strong message about Washington’s resolve and strengthen its position in the region and beyond.
Georgia matters. It is small, but it forms a key transit route for oil, gas, data, and cargo flowing across the Black Sea from east to west. Without those energy flows, in particular, Europe would be in serious trouble.
The Georgian regime has developed a sense of impunity in Washington’s absence, and despite overwhelming resistance from the country’s pro-Western population (80%-plus support EU and NATO membership), it is moving closer to America’s adversaries. Georgian Dream has signed a strategic partnership agreement with China and committed to strengthening ties with Tehran. It is also helping Russia evade Western sanctions.
This behavior is not isolated and should be seen in its broader context. As geopolitical competition intensifies, the importance of maintaining strong alliances and partnerships grows. America’s stance will determine whether other nations are encouraged to follow Georgia’s path.
In response to unprecedented government violence in Georgia, Washington has imposed visa bans on a handful of regime officials, whose names remain undisclosed. This tepid response falls short of what is needed and what has been demanded by US lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. The incoming administration has the power to restore US credibility and demonstrate that it intends to defend its interests globally.
The US can start by refusing to recognize the rigged parliamentary elections and pressure the Georgian regime to address the key demands of its people.
These are the release of all detained protesters; the dismissal of law enforcement and intelligence officials complicit in violence against citizens; the resignation of the government and corrupt judges who enable state repression; and the scheduling of new parliamentary elections under international supervision.
Overwhelming targeted financial sanctions against Georgian Dream’s billionaire leader Bidzina Ivanishvili and his cronies could also significantly weaken the regime’s grip on power.
The incoming Trump administration has firsthand experience of responding to adversarial regimes with decisive action. It struck both Syria and Iran when necessary and sent a clear signal to all of America’s adversaries that Washington was serious about defending its interests.
Similarly, supporting a small but overwhelmingly pro-Western nation like Georgia — strategically located in a critical region — would have a powerful ripple effect and strengthen America’s standing.
Helping Georgia peacefully overcome its repressive regime would demonstrate to American allies across the globe that Washington remains committed to upholding its partners in the face of intensifying great power competition.
As the new administration prepares to confront China and address Russian belligerence in Europe, it has an opportunity to showcase its first international success through a low-cost, high-dividend victory in Georgia.
Irina Arabidze is a Non-resident Fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at CEPA and a visiting lecturer at the Caucasus University in Tbilisi. A Fulbright scholar, Irina holds a master’s degree in International Affairs from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and a graduate degree in International Relations and European Studies from the Central European University.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
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