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Photo: Estonian Navel defense boat. Credit: Eduard Iganus/Estonian Defense Forces

Close to the Wind: Recommendations for Baltic Sea Regional Security

February 16, 2022
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The United States, NATO, and regional players must work together to enhance political cohesion and create a unified security strategy for the Baltic Sea.

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Photo: NATO vessels during exercise Open Spirit 2021. Credit: Normunds Mežiņš, Latvian Armed Forces.

Close to the Wind: Executive Summary

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The security of the Baltic Sea region will continue to be determined by the climate of east-west relations and EU-NATO cohesion.

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Photo: A Greek sniper with the Special Paratroopers Unit adjusts his scope during the 2021 European Best Sniper Competition. The US-organised competition gathered sniper teams from 14 NATO Allies and partners at Hohenfels Training Area in Germany in August 2021. Credit: NATO

Close to the Wind: Background – State of Play

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

In the Baltic Sea region Russia has strengthened its quantitative and qualitative advantage.

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Photo: US Army paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division clear the area so that a Chinook helicopter can lift an M-777 Howitzer during exercise Swift Response. Credit: NATO

Close to the Wind: The Bigger Picture – The Strategic Context

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The United States and its allies are in the process of a contentious, protracted, and belated effort to assess and respond to the threats from Russia and China, amid disruptive economic, technological, and public health challenges.

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Photo: The closing of the main Naval Parade in Saint Petersburg. Credit: Kremlin.ru

Close to the Wind: What Russia Wants

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The Kremlin aims to be the dominant power in Eurasia, using Russia’s size to exert strong influence over its neighbors and to bargain with big countries on an equal basis.

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Photo: Portuguese marines train in Lithuania For the Portuguese Fuzileiros, stealth can be key to securing their objectives. Using light Inflatable boats, or LIBs, Recon teams move quietly by water, keeping as low a profile as possible. Portuguese marines (the Fuzileiros) and navy divers have been practising skills and tactics in Lithuania. The group is in the Baltic country for three months as part of NATO assurance measures which comprise land, sea and air activities in, on and around the eastern part of NATO’s Alliance. Credit: NATO

Close to the Wind: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The operational and strategic roles of the different headquarters involved in the Baltic Sea region are unclear, and to outsiders even bewildering.

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Photo: Estonian marine basic training completion ceremony. Credit: Estonian Defence Forces

Close to the Wind: Conclusion – Shortcomings and Gaps

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The security of the Atlantic alliance and all its member states is only as strong as that of its weakest and most peripheral members.

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Photo: The Seawolf-class fast-attack submarine USS Connecticut (SSN 22) surfaces through the ice as it participates in Ice Exercise (ICEX) 2018. ICEX 2018 is a five-week exercise that allows the Navy to assess its operational readiness in the Arctic, increase experience in the region, advance understanding of the Arctic environment, and continue to develop relationships with other services, allies and partner organizations. Credit: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Daniel Hinton/Released

Building a Trans-Polar Bridge

May 21, 2021
By James Foggo and Rachael A. Gosnell

The long-neglected High North is changing fast. An international Arctic agreement is needed now, before trouble flares.

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Photo: U.S. Marines traverse arctic terrain on skis near Moen, Norway as part of Exercise White Claymore in February 2018. During the exercise, Marines with Marine Rotational Force-Europe honed their winter warfare skills with UKRoyal Marines with 45 Commando.

NATO Needs Unity as Russia’s Arctic Presence Grows

May 19, 2021
By Candace Huntington

As the ice has melted, Russia has wasted no time staking its claim.

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Dutch marines landing. Kyrksaeterora, Norway. Trident Juncture 2018. Trident Juncture 2018 is NATO’s largest exercise in many years, bringing together around 50,000 personnel from all 29 Allies, plus partners Finland and Sweden. Around 65 vessels, 150 aircraft and 10,000 vehicles will participate. Photo: Ilari Välimäki, Finnish Defence Forces, Combat Camera

Military Mobility Project Appendix 1: Nordic-Baltic Route

March 3, 2021
By Heinrich Brauss, Ben Hodges and Julian Lindley-French

Anticipating a Changing Geostrategic Environment

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