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Photo: NATO vessels during exercise Open Spirit 2021. Credit: Normunds Mežiņš, Latvian Armed Forces.

Close to the Wind: Executive Summary

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The security of the Baltic Sea region will continue to be determined by the climate of east-west relations and EU-NATO cohesion.

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Photo: A Greek sniper with the Special Paratroopers Unit adjusts his scope during the 2021 European Best Sniper Competition. The US-organised competition gathered sniper teams from 14 NATO Allies and partners at Hohenfels Training Area in Germany in August 2021. Credit: NATO

Close to the Wind: Background – State of Play

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

In the Baltic Sea region Russia has strengthened its quantitative and qualitative advantage.

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Photo: US Army paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division clear the area so that a Chinook helicopter can lift an M-777 Howitzer during exercise Swift Response. Credit: NATO

Close to the Wind: The Bigger Picture – The Strategic Context

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The United States and its allies are in the process of a contentious, protracted, and belated effort to assess and respond to the threats from Russia and China, amid disruptive economic, technological, and public health challenges.

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Photo: The closing of the main Naval Parade in Saint Petersburg. Credit: Kremlin.ru

Close to the Wind: What Russia Wants

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The Kremlin aims to be the dominant power in Eurasia, using Russia’s size to exert strong influence over its neighbors and to bargain with big countries on an equal basis.

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Photo: Portuguese marines train in Lithuania For the Portuguese Fuzileiros, stealth can be key to securing their objectives. Using light Inflatable boats, or LIBs, Recon teams move quietly by water, keeping as low a profile as possible. Portuguese marines (the Fuzileiros) and navy divers have been practising skills and tactics in Lithuania. The group is in the Baltic country for three months as part of NATO assurance measures which comprise land, sea and air activities in, on and around the eastern part of NATO’s Alliance. Credit: NATO

Close to the Wind: Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Broth

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The operational and strategic roles of the different headquarters involved in the Baltic Sea region are unclear, and to outsiders even bewildering.

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Photo: Estonian marine basic training completion ceremony. Credit: Estonian Defence Forces

Close to the Wind: Conclusion – Shortcomings and Gaps

September 9, 2021
By Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl

The security of the Atlantic alliance and all its member states is only as strong as that of its weakest and most peripheral members.

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Photo: European Executive Vice-President Margrethe Vestager and European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services Thierry Breton (not seen) give a news conference on the Data Governance Act at the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium November 25, 2020. Credit: Stephanie Lecocq/Pool via REUTERS

Disputes Mar the EU’s Struggle to Regulate Tech

April 20, 2021
By Alina Polyakova and Aristotle Vainikos

The Digital Markets Act is an ambitious effort to prop up European tech companies, which have underperformed in driving innovation

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China Influence Monitor

17+1 = problems; Huawei’s woes; Western Balkan wobbles

February 4, 2021
By Edward Lucas

CEE countries wrestle with a Chinese invitation; fine words from an ex-Huawei boss in Denmark, but strange goings on in Sweden and Switzerland;

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