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Photo: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan standing between Turkish, Russian, and Ukrainian flags. Credit:@ via Twitter.

Revolution in the South Caucasus

May 2, 2022
By Emil Avdaliani

While the Kremlin is busy in the west, developments to the south promise further threats to its aggressive policy in the borderlands.

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Photo: Ukraine supporters rally in Times Square holding flags, signs and chanting slogans on February 25, 2022 in New York City. People form Azerbaijan, Georgia and other indo-euroopean supporters gathered in solidarity against Russian President Vladimir Putin one day after he ordered the invasion of Ukraine. Credit: John Lamparski/NurPhoto

South Caucasus Shudder in the Shadow of Russia’s War

April 7, 2022
By Emil Avdaliani

Balancing is the most commonplace word in the South Caucasus. This is how the three states approach the war Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Photo: Workers install railway tracks near the settlement of Kaspi, some 50 km west of Tbilisi, June 7, 2012. Georgia postponed a planned London listing of its state railways monopoly in May, dealing a fresh blow to IPO markets as investors struggle with volatile share prices and reel from the debacle of Facebook's flotation. Credit: REUTERS/David Mdzinarishvili

Proceed With Caution: South Caucasus Inch Forward

October 27, 2021
By Emil Avdaliani

Connectivity in the South Caucasus gets a major boost with Armenia’s railroad agreement

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The militaries of Azerbaijan and Turkey hold the combat operation phase of the "Unshakable Brotherhood-2021" joint operational-tactical exercise. Credit: Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Unhappy Iran Battles for Lost Influence in South Caucasus

October 14, 2021
By Emil Avdaliani

Tension with Azerbaijan dies down but underlying differences are likely to widen

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Photo: A Russian peacekeeper on duty at an outpost in the city of Stepanakert. Russian peacekeepers' outposts were established in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict area according to the trilateral agreement on a complete ceasefire signed by the leaders of Armenia, Russia, and Azerbaijan on 9 November. Credit: Alexander Ryumin/TASS.

Russia Derails South Caucasus Path to Peace

August 13, 2021
By Emil Avdaliani

Geopolitical self-interest has no place when it comes to true peace-making. Armenia and Azerbaijan are learning that the hard way.

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Photo: Election posters of Nikol Pashinyan, main candidate of the Civil Contract party for the parliamentary elections in Armenia. Credit: Diego Herrera / SOPA Images/Sipa USA

Putin Ally Promises Humiliated Armenia a Better Future

June 18, 2021
By Ben Dubow

The election promises for Russia, at a minimum, a major boost to its influence in Armenia

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Photo: Ilham Aliyev met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Eskisehir. June 8, 2018. Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Relegating the “Russia Problem” to Turkey

April 27, 2021
By Emil Avdaliani

Turkey is poking at Russia’s underbelly

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Photo: YEREVAN, ARMENIA - MARCH 1, 2021: A girl holds an Armenian flag during a rally in support of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan outside the Armenian Government House in Republic Square. Credit: Hayk Baghdasaryan/Photolure/TASS

Armenia’s Surefire Election Winner? Russia

March 25, 2021
By Emil Avdaliani and CEPA

In the south Caucasus, internal political uncertainty creates opportunities for external players.

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November 25, 2020 Russian peacekeepers are seen during a visit by Nagorno Karabakh residents at a military checkpoint on a road to Shushi and Goris, on Russia's Day of Peacekeeper

Winners and Losers in the South Caucasus

December 4, 2020
By Emil Avdaliani and CEPA

Playing the “peacekeeping card” could signal Moscow’s relative geopolitical decline in the region.

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Photo: Maia Sandu visiting the European Commission as Prime Minister on July 5, 2019. Credit: Government of the Republic of Moldova

Don’t Wait

November 16, 2020
By Edward Lucas

The EU should act to support Moldova, despite its impotence in the Caucasus

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