There can now be no doubt: Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has produced a durable “rally round the flag” effect. The rising tide of public sentiment, however, may be pushing the regime towards dangerous shoals.
Refusing entry to Russians may look like an appealing policy, but it could hurt the West’s friends and help its enemies.
The situation in Western and Central Ukraine has for now stabilized; a trip to Kyiv provides those interested in international affairs with a unique opportunity.
The Kremlin has blazed an extraordinary trail of self-destruction in its determination to extinguish Ukrainian statehood. Now it stands alone and unloved.
Ukraine’s fight for existence is naturally a key area of focus on NATO’s Eastern Flank. But the alliance must keep an eye on perils facing it on the Southern Flank too.
Democracies face a strategic competitor in China, which produces destructive technology at great speed and in large quantities. The West must rapidly rethink to stay ahead.
It has been more than two decades since a little-noticed text foreshadowed China’s exceptionally broad approach to conflict with enemies, notably the West.
Western sanctions are crippling Russian industry, including its military producers. Russia will now try to use China, Iran, and India to fill the gap.
The Estonian city of Narva has been the scene of sieges and destruction throughout its long history. Now, an old Soviet war memorial is threatening new unrest.
It is unsurprising that German efforts to reverse its foreign policy are a slow process. This is a huge undertaking — but it is happening.
The Russian leader delights in Cold War-style trades; expect more Westerners to be arrested as he forms a “bank” of people for future prisoner exchanges.
Russian military planners now have access to a treasure trove of European data which can be used to circumvent Western defenses.
A new maritime strategy document signals Russia’s growing global ambitions and plans to claim areas previously regarded as international waters.
Thin-skinnedness is a sign of weakness
Russia gives itself the right to invade sovereign neighbors, while denying their legally established right to retaliate.
All eyes are fixed on the Black Sea, where grain carriers offering some hope of easing the world’s food shortage are once again leaving Ukrainian ports.
The Hungarian populist leader is challenging the fundamentals of the European order in a time of war.
Armenia and Turkey are signaling a willingness to normalize long-stalled bilateral ties. Obstacles remain, but there is reason for optimism.
There are numerous barriers to be overcome before Ukrainian grain flows freely to world markets.
Voices within the Russian military community are beginning to express anxiety about the future course of the war against Ukraine.
From Thatcherism to Trussism
Russia’s eight-year war against Ukraine is unlikely to be the Kremlin’s last military adventure in its borderlands. Moldova is rightly worried.
A few months in modern politics can be a short forever, as Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shows.
Russia openly states it is fighting a war against the West; that means the Kremlin must be beaten on Ukraine’s battlefields using advanced armaments.
Despite the devastating impact of tech sanctions on Russia, some leaders are too eager to echo the self-fulfilling prophecy of “Ukraine Fatigue.”
The Russian regime rewards managers and engineers who keep the regime afloat, and expects a Faustian payment in return.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is gathering evidence of Russia’s extensive war crimes in Ukraine, but jailing the guilty will be an arduous process.
Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Mediterranean region remains Italy’s main geostrategic focus for security and defense policy.
The glitz of new and smart weaponry can seduce politicians and institutions, but major wars are still won by industrial mobilization.
The Kremlin is using a variety of tactics to intimidate and exploit the people of the occupied zones.
Gangster dramas are the best guide to the Kremlin’s mindset.
The towns near Kyiv which bore the brunt of Russia’s war of aggression are starting to work on reconstruction.
Aliaksandr Lukashenka has been complicit in Russia’s invasion since it began, but his recent behavior has fueled concerns that he may expand Belarus’s role.
Ukraine has won a pledge of EU accession, but now needs to think about the long journey ahead.
There is a good chance that Russian gas supplies will be severed in the coming weeks. Europe will pay a very high price if it seeks to buy off Vladimir Putin.
The alliance needs to fully embrace artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems to maintain a competitive edge over its adversaries.
International law needs to keep pace with the changing nature of warfare. The ICC is best placed to take action.
It’s not just hydrocarbons
There are moves to have Putinism installed as a state ideology to last beyond the president’s time in office.
The headlines say the government is close to collapse, but there’s still time to keep the administration in power. That would be good for the country.
What leads countries to start wars and how can they be dissuaded?
Europe is preparing for a continent-wide emergency triggered by the Russian use of energy weapons.
The NATO summit has ended, pledges of assistance for Ukraine abound, but execution still lags.
Russia’s decline is visible to everyone, including China, despite its grandiose claims and attempts to bury history.
What lessons should senior Russians take from attempts to remove Adolf Hitler from power?
To the very considerable aggravation of Russia, a supposed client government is refusing to obey orders
Despite political upheavals, Britain’s support for Ukraine is lasting and bipartisan
The importance of Ukraine in the global economy has become clear in the last four months.
The country is making enormous investments and will become one of Europe’s major land powers.
Pro-Kremlin narratives constantly contradict each other, but most of its consumers don’t care.
Russia’s ruler is using increasingly ruthless tactics to keep possible opponents off-balance, including senior members of the elite.
The country’s toxic internal politics mean it will be a bumpy journey.
What does Volodymyr Zelenskyy seek from the war and what concessions can he reasonably make?
Russia’s war in Ukraine has forced Germany to rethink its energy sector.
The war in Ukraine is not a dog fight
A highly regarded Russian scientist has died in Moscow, two days after he was arrested in Novosibirsk seemingly under suspicion of spying for China.
The regime’s circle of true believers is shrinking, foreshadowing grave problems.
In the end, Western voters will thank their governments for standing with Ukraine — any other option comes at an unaffordably high price.
The entry of Sweden and Finland into the NATO alliance radically improve its ability to defend the High North.
The alliance has important decisions to make about the future shape of its intelligence and surveillance systems.
The Kremlin sees the EU as a cultural magnet, sucking in the borderland states. Its military can’t stop the process.
Russian society is split over the war, but so is the anti-war movement itself.
Life on the Ukraine frontline in the words of those who are there.
NATO should finally assign strategic priority to the Black Sea region, and match its words with action.
Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression has allowed the Western alliance to reap unimagined rewards.
Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine has shaken NATO but now it needs to agree investments in robust forward defense.
The country’s hi-tech defense industry is laboring to raise production, with some success. But its efforts are running into trouble.
Four months after the war started, Russia has admitted it lacks IT specialists. But its proposed solution might only benefit the country’s neighbors.
NATO needs to be serious. Nothing else matters
Europe is beginning to re-arm and re-think its security, which means deciding how much of the defense burden it will bear.
Vladimir Putin’s illegal behavior towards Ukrainian children follows a path beaten by the Nazis.
Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression has brought the administrative middle classes into line.
There are serious dangers in over-interpreting the lessons of the war in Ukraine.
The West must resist the temptation to make hasty judgments on the future of weapons systems like the tank, whatever the impression left by breathless reporting.
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth month, Western resolve about the war shows signs of faltering.
The once-dominant Franco-German powerhouse no longer exclusively speaks for Europe, as the war in Ukraine has proved beyond doubt.
Despite resistance at home, the government is maintaining a stoutly Atlanticist course on Ukraine.
The region remains a source of terrorist instability, which is directly linked to Russia’s actions in the Muslim world.
Despite advances by Putin-friendly extremists at the election, they lack the parliamentary muscle to change Ukraine policy.
Despite repeated official denials, the democratic world’s joint efforts are doing increasing damage to the Russian economy.
The European Commission has given Georgia a warning signal and an opportunity on the road to membership.
Russia is not going away. We need a strategy
For over a decade, Russian society has been bombarded with hardcore, revanchist propaganda. The West did not take note.
As Russia’s military faces acute shortages of war materiel, the Kremlin is urgently seeking ways to evade sanctions.
Italy has expertise and ambitions for the new space race, but needs to develop relations with the US and help fix Europe’s overly bureaucratic approaches.
Russia’s threat to European energy supplies can be fixed by imaginative solutions involving the Middle East.
The pace of events is accelerating as key battles rage against Russia in Donbas, Western European leaders visit Kyiv and the EU decides on Ukraine’s candidacy.
Indiscriminate shelling has destroyed Ukraine’s physical infrastructure, but Russian operations also focus on a less visible target: history textbooks.
Please pay attention – the Kremlin does.
The West’s enemies will draw dangerous conclusions from its divisions over Ukraine.
The war is now focused on three fronts where peril and opportunity lurk for Ukraine. Military progress relies on Western help.
The Kremlin has done everything possible to seal off Russian citizens from independent news media, and it’s failing.
Russian efforts to erode Europe’s will are showing progress, especially in Italy.
Franco-German efforts to seek a ceasefire in Ukraine have obscured an emerging consensus among NATO’s frontline states — there can be no deal with the Russian aggressor.
The position of LGBT people in Russia was bad before the war started and has worsened since then.
As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to preoccupy the Kremlin, there are signs of hope in the South Caucasus.
Reliance on the Kremlin comes at a high price, as Iran’s leaders are discovering.
Shortly after Russia launched its brutal war against Ukraine, rumors began circulating about Vladimir Putin’s health. It’s not the first time.
But not as much as you think
Strategic plans rarely withstand crises, much less wars. But ‘Future War’ passes the test.